Clemson
4-34-3 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 2-5
7:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ACC Network
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee
WIN PROB
62%
FSU
Florida State
3-43-4 · 1-3 ACC · ATS 3-3-1
- Spread
- FSU −5.5
- Open +1.5 · −110
- Total
- 51
- Open 51.5
- Model line
- FSU −5.1
- Model total 52.2
- Win probability
- 62%
- Projected score
- 23.6 – 28.7
- CLEM – FSU
- Projected plays
- 131
- FBS avg 132 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- FSU −5.5
- open +1.5
- Model
- −5.1
- FSU
- Total
- 51
- model 52.2
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Florida State passvs Clemson pass Dvs CLEM pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 38th+0.06 | 3rd−0.20 | 30 | CLEM +6.2 |
  Clemson passvs Florida State pass Dvs FSU pass D | 130th−0.17 | 105th+0.08 | 33 | FSU +4.4 |
| Florida State runvs Clemson run Dvs CLEM run D | 33rd+0.06 | 83rd+0.02 | 35 | FSU +4.0 |
| Clemson runvs Florida State run Dvs FSU run D | 104th−0.05 | 87th+0.03 | 32 | FSU +0.8 |
PaceCLEM 26.3 s · FSU 28.0 s a snap · avg 132 plays131 plays vs 132 avg | — | — | 131 | U 0.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · CLEM +6.2
The Clemson pass defense vs Florida State's passing game
Florida State gains +0.17 EPA a play on the pass (38th); Clemson allows −0.10 (3rd). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseFlorida State
FSU OFFWhen Florida State has the ball
DefenseClemson
CLEM DEF- +0.1725thEPA / play18th−0.06
- 43.8%45thSuccess rate32nd39.2%
- 1.3913thExplosiveness6th1.18
- +0.1333rdRush EPA / play83rd+0.09
- +0.1738thPass EPA / dropback3rd−0.10
- 46.1%84thStandard downs SR24th43.6%
- 35.2%10thPassing downs SR90th31.6%
- 3.4828thLine yards96th3.24
- 11.7%32ndHavoc rate18th17.4%
- 4.9821stPoints / opportunity11th3.03
- +0.1445thEarly-down EPA / play84th+0.06
- 44.1%41st3rd-down conversion15th31.3%
- 11.0%11thStuff rate68th16.7%
- 8.1%122ndSack rate16th7.9%
- 78%11thRed zone TD rate52nd56%
Clemson's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (122nd vs 16th).
OffenseClemson
CLEM OFFWhen Clemson has the ball
DefenseFlorida State
FSU DEF- −0.08125thEPA / play104th+0.13
- 37.8%123rdSuccess rate87th43.8%
- 1.2794thExplosiveness93rd1.32
- +0.02104thRush EPA / play87th+0.10
- −0.06130thPass EPA / dropback105th+0.19
- 41.6%133rdStandard downs SR100th49.5%
- 30.6%72ndPassing downs SR91st31.6%
- 2.84124thLine yards122nd3.44
- 15.6%109thHavoc rate123rd11.6%
- 3.58114thPoints / opportunity66th3.97
- −0.07121stEarly-down EPA / play118th+0.14
- 29.9%131st3rd-down conversion111th43.4%
- 21.2%127thStuff rate119th12.9%
- 8.8%130thSack rate66th5.7%
- 40%133rdRed zone TD rate88th67%
Florida State's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (130th vs 66th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | CLEMCLEM | FSUFSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.3 | 28.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.4 | 63.6 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 45.5% | 44.4% | 48.0% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −4.7% | −4.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 44.4% | 36.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 20% | 33% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:45 | 28:20 | 30:08 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.5 | Own 29.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%