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SAT 6:30 · ESPN+ · STATESBORO
App State
5-25-2 · 2-1 Sun Belt · ATS 5-2
6:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+
Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Statesboro
WIN PROB
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Georgia Southern
3-43-4 · 2-1 Sun Belt · ATS 6-1
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
App State runvs Georgia Southern run Dvs GASO run DBIGGEST EDGE
122nd−0.0970th0.0032GASO +3.9
Georgia Southern passvs App State pass Dvs APP pass D
45th+0.0531st−0.0741APP +1.6
App State passvs Georgia Southern pass Dvs GASO pass D
46th+0.0558th−0.0236APP +1.4
Georgia Southern runvs App State run Dvs APP run D
86th−0.0282nd+0.0227APP +0.1

BIGGEST EDGE · GASO +3.9

The Georgia Southern run defense vs App State's run game

App State gains −0.02 EPA a play on the run (122nd); Georgia Southern allows +0.07 (70th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseGeorgia Southern
GASO OFF

When Georgia Southern has the ball

DefenseApp State
APP DEF
  • +0.0854thEPA / play71st+0.06
  • 43.4%55thSuccess rate102nd44.9%
  • 1.2973rdExplosiveness5th1.18
  • +0.0586thRush EPA / play82nd+0.09
  • +0.1645thPass EPA / dropback31st+0.04
  • 47.2%63rdStandard downs SR119th50.6%
  • 32.7%36thPassing downs SR47th29.9%
  • 3.1486thLine yards46th2.89
  • 13.3%64thHavoc rate52nd15.0%
  • 3.8597thPoints / opportunity52nd3.74
  • 56%102ndRed zone TD rate120th75%

App State's defense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (73rd vs 5th).

OffenseApp State
APP OFF

When App State has the ball

DefenseGeorgia Southern
GASO DEF
  • +0.0571stEPA / play45th+0.02
  • 40.9%81stSuccess rate52nd41.2%
  • 1.2876thExplosiveness30th1.25
  • −0.02122ndRush EPA / play70th+0.07
  • +0.1646thPass EPA / dropback58th+0.10
  • 45.8%84thStandard downs SR49th46.2%
  • 31.8%51stPassing downs SR62nd30.5%
  • 2.90118thLine yards71st3.12
  • 13.6%70thHavoc rate41st15.5%
  • 4.2271stPoints / opportunity77th4.13
  • 72%28thRed zone TD rate59th58%

Georgia Southern's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (122nd vs 70th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, App State and Georgia Southern, season to date
MetricAPPAPPGASOGASOFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral26.031.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game68.368.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral46.7%55.1%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−3.0%+7.1%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral42.3%54.3%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations19%20%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession31:0031:2530:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.1Own 27.4Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

SUN BELT AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

App State

SUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetSUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report1 OUT FOR SEASON · 2 OUT · 1 GAME-TIME DECISION

Georgia Southern

SUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetSUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report4 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT

Broadcast

ESPN+
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Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

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RefereeCrew TBA
RestAPP 9d · GASO 16dGASO OFF BYE