Oregon State
5-25-2 · 3-0 Pac-12 · ATS 6-1
11:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · USA Network
Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno
WIN PROB
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Fresno State
4-34-3 · 1-2 Pac-12 · ATS 5-2
- Spread
- ORST −6.5
- Open −6.5 · −122
- Total
- 56.5
- Open 56.5 · o −110
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ORST −6.5
- open −6.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 56.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oregon State passvs Fresno State pass Dvs FRES pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 18th+0.13 | 54th−0.03 | 44 | ORST +6.6 |
| Oregon State runvs Fresno State run Dvs FRES run D | 24th+0.08 | 108th+0.06 | 24 | ORST +4.8 |
  Fresno State passvs Oregon State pass Dvs ORST pass D | 35th+0.07 | 61st−0.01 | 35 | FRES +3.0 |
| Fresno State runvs Oregon State run Dvs ORST run D | 94th−0.04 | 54th−0.03 | 33 | ORST +3.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ORST +6.6
Oregon State's passing game vs the Fresno State pass defense
Oregon State gains +0.25 EPA a play on the pass (18th); Fresno State allows +0.09 (54th). About 44 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseFresno State
FRES OFFWhen Fresno State has the ball
DefenseOregon State
ORST DEF- +0.0762ndEPA / play61st+0.04
- 41.7%70thSuccess rate57th41.4%
- 1.3440thExplosiveness35th1.26
- +0.0494thRush EPA / play54th+0.04
- +0.1935thPass EPA / dropback61st+0.10
- 45.5%93rdStandard downs SR54th46.4%
- 33.2%27thPassing downs SR66th30.7%
- 2.95110thLine yards68th3.12
- 11.5%29thHavoc rate44th15.4%
- 4.0879thPoints / opportunity107th4.59
- +0.1639thEarly-down EPA / play56th+0.01
- 39.5%74th3rd-down conversion68th38.7%
- 20.5%121stStuff rate100th14.5%
- 5.6%90thSack rate32nd7.1%
- 63%76thRed zone TD rate67th61%
Oregon State's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (90th vs 32nd).
OffenseOregon State
ORST OFFWhen Oregon State has the ball
DefenseFresno State
FRES DEF- +0.2116thEPA / play81st+0.08
- 46.6%22ndSuccess rate88th43.8%
- 1.3538thExplosiveness54th1.29
- +0.1524thRush EPA / play108th+0.13
- +0.2518thPass EPA / dropback54th+0.09
- 51.7%18thStandard downs SR88th48.8%
- 33.0%31stPassing downs SR67th30.7%
- 3.6512thLine yards82nd3.20
- 10.6%21stHavoc rate46th15.4%
- 5.566thPoints / opportunity76th4.12
- +0.297thEarly-down EPA / play64th+0.02
- 44.3%39th3rd-down conversion33rd34.2%
- 9.7%6thStuff rate83rd15.7%
- 3.1%27thSack rate42nd6.7%
- 88%3rdRed zone TD rate16th46%
Oregon State's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (24th vs 108th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ORSTORST | FRESFRES | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 32.1 | 30.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 72.1 | 59.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 42.1% | 52.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −2.4% | +3.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 43.8% | 47.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 39% | 15% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:32 | 29:38 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.1 | Own 33.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%