Florida
#20 · 5-2#20 · 5-2 · 3-2 SEC · ATS 4-3
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ABC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta · Neutral
WIN PROB
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Georgia
#5 · 6-1#5 · 6-1 · 4-1 SEC · ATS 5-2
- Spread
- UGA −10
- Open −12.5
- Total
- 56
- Open 53.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UGA −10
- open −12.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 56
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Georgia passvs Florida pass Dvs FLA pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 11th+0.17 | 95th+0.05 | 35 | UGA +10.6 |
| Georgia runvs Florida run Dvs FLA run D | 7th+0.11 | 93rd+0.04 | 33 | UGA +7.3 |
  Florida passvs Georgia pass Dvs UGA pass D | 10th+0.19 | 45th−0.05 | 30 | FLA +6.2 |
| Florida runvs Georgia run Dvs UGA run D | 39th+0.05 | 37th−0.06 | 39 | UGA +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UGA +10.6
Georgia's passing game vs the Florida pass defense
Georgia gains +0.28 EPA a play on the pass (11th); Florida allows +0.16 (95th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseGeorgia
UGA OFFWhen Georgia has the ball
DefenseFlorida
FLA DEF- +0.257thEPA / play84th+0.08
- 50.7%2ndSuccess rate87th43.7%
- 1.2883rdExplosiveness78th1.31
- +0.187thRush EPA / play93rd+0.11
- +0.2811thPass EPA / dropback95th+0.16
- 54.2%3rdStandard downs SR73rd47.7%
- 35.0%14thPassing downs SR115th33.3%
- 3.689thLine yards96th3.26
- 10.5%20thHavoc rate32nd16.1%
- 5.751stPoints / opportunity129th5.06
- +0.288thEarly-down EPA / play68th+0.03
- 54.4%6th3rd-down conversion133rd50.0%
- 10.3%9thStuff rate129th11.3%
- 4.9%62ndSack rate31st7.2%
- 89%2ndRed zone TD rate112th70%
Georgia's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (1st vs 129th).
OffenseFlorida
FLA OFFWhen Florida has the ball
DefenseGeorgia
UGA DEF- +0.2313thEPA / play19th−0.06
- 46.3%27thSuccess rate15th37.6%
- 1.3537thExplosiveness64th1.29
- +0.1239thRush EPA / play37th+0.01
- +0.3110thPass EPA / dropback45th+0.07
- 50.4%27thStandard downs SR21st43.5%
- 32.5%36thPassing downs SR15th28.4%
- 2.86124thLine yards24th2.76
- 13.2%62ndHavoc rate17th17.7%
- 5.0320thPoints / opportunity3rd2.59
- +0.1543rdEarly-down EPA / play7th−0.16
- 44.7%36th3rd-down conversion34th34.3%
- 18.7%105thStuff rate81st15.7%
- 4.0%44thSack rate8th8.8%
- 72%28thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Georgia's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: line yards (124th vs 24th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | FLAFLA | UGAUGA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.4 | 33.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.7 | 59.6 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 45.9% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −3.4% | +1.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 43.0% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 28% | 10% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:10 | 30:32 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.9 | Own 31.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%