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- Win probability
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- FBS avg 132 · 28.9 s/play
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oklahoma State passvs Kansas State pass Dvs KSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 16th+0.15 | 70th0.00 | 36 | OKST +8.0 |
  Kansas State runvs Oklahoma State run Dvs OKST run D | 35th+0.05 | 64th−0.01 | 34 | KSU +1.9 |
| Oklahoma State runvs Kansas State run Dvs KSU run D | 52nd+0.03 | 69th0.00 | 32 | OKST +1.3 |
| Kansas State passvs Oklahoma State pass Dvs OKST pass D | 73rd−0.02 | 76th+0.02 | 34 | OKST +0.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · OKST +8.0
Oklahoma State's passing game vs the Kansas State pass defense
Oklahoma State gains +0.26 EPA a play on the pass (16th); Kansas State allows +0.11 (70th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Kansas State has the ball
- +0.0855thEPA / play69th+0.05
- 43.7%46thSuccess rate72nd42.3%
- 1.2793rdExplosiveness68th1.29
- +0.1235thRush EPA / play64th+0.06
- +0.0973rdPass EPA / dropback76th+0.12
- 47.7%57thStandard downs SR93rd49.2%
- 33.3%26thPassing downs SR21st28.5%
- 3.2761stLine yards59th3.05
- 11.2%26thHavoc rate91st13.4%
- 4.2672ndPoints / opportunity103rd4.42
- 58%97thRed zone TD rate115th71%
Kansas State's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (26th vs 91st).
When Oklahoma State has the ball
- +0.1722ndEPA / play82nd+0.09
- 49.3%8thSuccess rate35th39.7%
- 1.2795thExplosiveness124th1.38
- +0.1052ndRush EPA / play69th+0.07
- +0.2616thPass EPA / dropback70th+0.11
- 53.3%8thStandard downs SR22nd43.6%
- 34.0%20thPassing downs SR100th32.2%
- 3.5421stLine yards79th3.18
- 10.8%20thHavoc rate14th18.0%
- 4.5355thPoints / opportunity109th4.55
- 51%120thRed zone TD rate108th70%
Oklahoma State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (20th vs 100th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | OKSTOKST | KSUKSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.6 | 29.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 71.0 | 70.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.2% | 49.3% | 48.0% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +9.0% | −0.1% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.9% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 28% | 19% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:20 | 32:48 | 30:08 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.6 | Own 29.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 game-day report1 OUT · 1 GAME-TIME DECISION
- OutLandon Dean · DT
- Game-time decisionDayvon Standard · WR
Week 8 game-day report2 OUT · 1 GAME-TIME DECISION
- OutAvery Johnson · QB
- OutGarrett Oakley · TE
- Game-time decisionBlake Barnett · QB
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
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