reportedK-State Collegian football desk@Nate Lowen, staff writer
4hUnconfirmed tip: Oakley could be doubtful against Arizona State on Saturday.
Garrett Oakley · TECHECKING
Big 12 · 4-2 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 4-2
Kansas State Wildcats
HC Collin Klein (1st yr) · OC Sean Gleeson · DC Jordan Peterson
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 5) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 100%
Power rating3.348th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.9of 12
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored
Big 12 · 4-2 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 4-2
Kansas State
Wildcats · HC Collin Klein (1st yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 5) · base D 3-3-5
Power rating3.348th
CFP odds · outlook0%—BUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.9of 12
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored
Kansas State
4-2 · 1-2 Big 12
POWER RATING3.348th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS6.9of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
2 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
FAN PULSE—1 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
KANSAS STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedK-State Collegian football desk@Paige Mueller, sports editor
11hUnconfirmed tip: Johnson could be questionable against Arizona State on Saturday.
Avery Johnson · QBCHECKING
reportedK-State Collegian football desk@Paige Mueller, sports editor
11hUnconfirmed tip on Duff’s status against Arizona State on Saturday.
Dillon Duff · QBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NichollsNicholls | W71–3 | −41.5−41.5 | W | +0.79 | 58% | 22% | 100% | 71 | 30.4 | |
| 2 |   Washington StateWashington State | W34–7 | −18−18 | W | +0.51 | 48% | 27% | 94% | 74 | 29.4 | |
| 3 |   TulaneTulane | W31–20 | −20.5−20.5 | L | +0.44 | 50% | 34% | 77% | 62 | 32.8 | |
| 4 |   at Cincinnatiat Cincinnati | L26–31 | −6−6 | L | −0.13 | 45% | 41% | 39% | 80 | 25.8 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   HoustonHouston | L16–35 | −2.5−2.5 | L | −0.51 | 44% | 51% | 13% | 59 | 26.7 | |
| 7 |   KansasKansas | W35–24 | −3−3 | W | +0.19 | 48% | 34% | 57% | 73 | 31.1 | |
| 8 |   at Arizona Stateat Arizona StateNEXT | SAT 3:45 ESPN2SAT 3:45 | −1.5−1.5 | — | — | — | — | 58% | 137 | — | |
| 9 |   at Coloradoat Colorado | OCT 31OCT 31 | −0.8 proj−0.8 | 52% | |||||||
| 10 |   Oklahoma StateOklahoma State | NOV 7NOV 7 | −4.4 proj−4.4 | 60% | |||||||
| 11 |   at TCUat TCU | NOV 14NOV 14 | +5.6 proj+5.6 | 37% | |||||||
| 12 |   ArizonaArizona | NOV 21NOV 21 | +4.8 proj+4.8 | 39% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Iowa Stateat Iowa State | NOV 28NOV 28 | +1 proj+1 | 48% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st50%n 250%n 450%n 15633%n 3
2nd63%n 1939%n 3335%n 4831%n 13
3rd71%n 2154%n 2663%n 1633%n 9
4th50%n 20%n 10%n 1—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 349 OF 354 PLAYS349 OF 354 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 47% | +0.21 | 48% |
| Under center0% | 0% | 0% | +1.43 | 100% |
| No-huddle73% | 73% | 52% | +0.13 | 45% |
| Huddle27% | 27% | 33% | +0.45 | 56% |
StartersSTARTERS
114 of 5 games121 of 5BASE D3-3-53 of 6
114 of 53-3-5base D · 3 of 6
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 47 % of the time (+0.21 EPA a play; +1.43 under center). No-huddle on 73 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 5 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (3 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:45 ESPN2 · MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMSAT 3:45 ESPN2
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
D
Avery JohnsonQB · SR
QB · top injuryNEXT UPB. BarnettΔ −0.13 EPA/play
25%TO PLAY
−3.9IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −3.9 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 50 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 50 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 3 games | −0.9 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 2 games | +0.7 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +0.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −1.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | +1.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDerek Anderson−1.1 / g · 4 games · noise−1.1 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMichael VanderVelde+1.7 / g · 3 games · noise+1.7 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Kansas State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Kansas State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #2 · SRAvery Johnson+0.23EPA/dropback · 50thCPOE+0.4aDOT8.1Sack %1.6%RB · #20 · JRRodney Fields Jr.52.1%rush SR · 32ndYards per carry5.4Explosive rate8.5%Rush EPA+0.16WR · #12 · SRJaron Tibbs1.40YPTPA · 182ndTarget share20.9%EPA / target+0.54aDOT10.9EDGE · #1 · JRWendell Gregory10havoc plays · 12thTFL10Sacks2.5Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Kansas StateKSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.13 | 38th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 45.5% | 33rd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.29 | 72nd | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.16 | 19th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.13 | 55th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 34.7% | 17th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.44 | 33rd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 1.2% | 6th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 58% | 3rd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.52 | 60th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 57% | 97th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.3 | 94th | 28.0 |