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SAT 2:00 · TNT · BOULDER
Kansas State
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
2:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · TNT
Folsom Field · Boulder
WIN PROB
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Colorado
2-42-4 · 0-3 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Colorado runvs Kansas State run Dvs KSU run DBIGGEST EDGE
120th−0.0879th+0.0234KSU +3.1
Kansas State runvs Colorado run Dvs COLO run D
19th+0.093rd−0.1436COLO +2.2
Colorado passvs Kansas State pass Dvs KSU pass D
77th−0.0275th+0.0135KSU +0.5
Kansas State passvs Colorado pass Dvs COLO pass D
55th+0.0167th−0.0133KSU +0.4

BIGGEST EDGE · KSU +3.1

The Kansas State run defense vs Colorado's run game

Colorado gains −0.01 EPA a play on the run (120th); Kansas State allows +0.08 (79th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseColorado
COLO OFF

When Colorado has the ball

DefenseKansas State
KSU DEF
  • −0.03106thEPA / play86th+0.09
  • 41.0%80thSuccess rate39th40.3%
  • 1.2796thExplosiveness125th1.38
  • −0.01120thRush EPA / play79th+0.08
  • +0.0977thPass EPA / dropback75th+0.13
  • 45.7%86thStandard downs SR28th44.2%
  • 31.1%69thPassing downs SR102nd32.4%
  • 3.1488thLine yards74th3.13
  • 14.6%90thHavoc rate22nd17.1%
  • 3.25124thPoints / opportunity105th4.52
  • 50%119thRed zone TD rate115th71%

Kansas State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (90th vs 22nd).

OffenseKansas State
KSU OFF

When Kansas State has the ball

DefenseColorado
COLO DEF
  • +0.1338thEPA / play22nd−0.05
  • 45.5%33rdSuccess rate16th37.7%
  • 1.2972ndExplosiveness94th1.32
  • +0.1619thRush EPA / play3rd−0.07
  • +0.1355thPass EPA / dropback67th+0.11
  • 48.7%43rdStandard downs SR18th43.2%
  • 34.7%17thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
  • 3.4433rdLine yards6th2.48
  • 8.8%6thHavoc rate5th20.4%
  • 4.5260thPoints / opportunity30th3.46
  • 57%97thRed zone TD rate15th46%

Colorado's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (97th vs 15th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Kansas State and Colorado, season to date
MetricKSUKSUCOLOCOLOFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral30.127.728.9
Plays per gamePlays per game69.870.265.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral48.0%39.4%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−0.7%−10.4%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral45.7%38.3%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations13%28%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:4428:4930:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.8Own 25.4Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Kansas State

BIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report2 DOUBTFUL · 1 QUESTIONABLE

Colorado

BIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report5 OUT · 3 PROBABLE

Broadcast

TNT
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestKSU 14d · COLO 14dBOTH OFF BYE