Kansas State
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
2:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · TNT
Folsom Field · Boulder
WIN PROB
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Colorado
2-42-4 · 0-3 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Colorado runvs Kansas State run Dvs KSU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 120th−0.08 | 79th+0.02 | 34 | KSU +3.0 |
  Kansas State runvs Colorado run Dvs COLO run D | 20th+0.09 | 3rd−0.14 | 36 | COLO +2.3 |
| Colorado passvs Kansas State pass Dvs KSU pass D | 77th−0.02 | 75th+0.01 | 35 | KSU +0.5 |
| Kansas State passvs Colorado pass Dvs COLO pass D | 55th+0.01 | 67th−0.01 | 33 | KSU +0.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · KSU +3.0
The Kansas State run defense vs Colorado's run game
Colorado gains −0.01 EPA a play on the run (120th); Kansas State allows +0.09 (79th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseColorado
COLO OFFWhen Colorado has the ball
DefenseKansas State
KSU DEF- −0.03106thEPA / play86th+0.09
- 41.0%80thSuccess rate40th40.3%
- 1.2795thExplosiveness126th1.38
- −0.01120thRush EPA / play79th+0.09
- +0.0977thPass EPA / dropback75th+0.13
- 45.7%88thStandard downs SR28th44.2%
- 31.0%68thPassing downs SR102nd32.3%
- 3.1488thLine yards74th3.13
- 14.6%90thHavoc rate22nd17.1%
- 3.25124thPoints / opportunity105th4.52
- 0.00105thEarly-down EPA / play44th−0.01
- 36.8%99th3rd-down conversion52nd36.4%
- 14.2%49thStuff rate44th18.3%
- 5.0%72ndSack rate10th8.3%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate115th71%
Kansas State's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (90th vs 22nd).
OffenseKansas State
KSU OFFWhen Kansas State has the ball
DefenseColorado
COLO DEF- +0.1339thEPA / play22nd−0.05
- 45.4%33rdSuccess rate17th37.7%
- 1.2974thExplosiveness95th1.32
- +0.1620thRush EPA / play3rd−0.07
- +0.1355thPass EPA / dropback67th+0.11
- 48.7%43rdStandard downs SR18th43.2%
- 34.7%17thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
- 3.4432ndLine yards6th2.48
- 8.8%6thHavoc rate5th20.4%
- 4.5260thPoints / opportunity30th3.46
- +0.1638thEarly-down EPA / play29th−0.07
- 58.3%3rd3rd-down conversion78th39.2%
- 13.2%36thStuff rate5th27.3%
- 1.2%6thSack rate49th6.3%
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate15th46%
Colorado's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (97th vs 15th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | KSUKSU | COLOCOLO | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.1 | 27.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.8 | 70.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 48.0% | 39.4% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.7% | −10.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 45.7% | 38.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 13% | 28% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:44 | 28:49 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.8 | Own 25.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%