Kansas State vs Arizona State

Kansas State

4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3

3:45 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN2

Mountain America Stadium · Tempe

WIN PROB

58%

KSU

Arizona State

3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 2-4

Spread: KSU −1.5; Open −3.5 · −103
Total: 52.5; Open 56.5 · o −106
Model line: KSU −3.5+2.0; Model total 54.8
Win probability: 58%
Projected score: 29.2 – 25.6; KSU – ASU
Projected plays: 137; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: KSU −1.5; open −3.5
Model: −3.5+2.0; KSU
Total: 52.5; model 54.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Kansas State runvs Arizona State run Dvs ASU run DBIGGEST EDGE	20th+0.09	111th+0.06	36	KSU +8.0
Arizona State passvs Kansas State pass Dvs KSU pass D	97th−0.06	75th+0.01	36	KSU +2.3
PaceKSU 30.1 s · ASU 27.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays137 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	137	O 2.2
Arizona State runvs Kansas State run Dvs KSU run D	63rd+0.01	79th+0.02	33	ASU +1.1
Kansas State passvs Arizona State pass Dvs ASU pass D	55th+0.01	69th0.00	33	KSU +0.6

BIGGEST EDGE · KSU +8.0

Kansas State's run game vs the Arizona State run defense

Kansas State gains +0.16 EPA a play on the run (20th); Arizona State allows +0.13 (111th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseArizona State

ASU OFF

When Arizona State has the ball

DefenseKansas State

KSU DEF

+0.0194thEPA / play86th+0.09
42.6%57thSuccess rate40th40.3%
1.3251stExplosiveness126th1.38
+0.0863rdRush EPA / play79th+0.09
+0.0697thPass EPA / dropback75th+0.13
46.4%79thStandard downs SR28th44.2%
32.8%33rdPassing downs SR102nd32.3%
3.2465thLine yards74th3.13
15.7%111thHavoc rate22nd17.1%
4.0087thPoints / opportunity105th4.52
54%108thRed zone TD rate115th71%

Arizona State's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (111th vs 22nd).

OffenseKansas State

KSU OFF

When Kansas State has the ball

DefenseArizona State

ASU DEF

+0.1339thEPA / play78th+0.08
45.4%33rdSuccess rate78th42.8%
1.2974thExplosiveness122nd1.37
+0.1620thRush EPA / play111th+0.13
+0.1355thPass EPA / dropback69th+0.11
48.7%43rdStandard downs SR80th48.2%
34.7%17thPassing downs SR75th31.0%
3.4432ndLine yards102nd3.31
8.8%6thHavoc rate36th15.7%
4.5260thPoints / opportunity54th3.76
57%97thRed zone TD rate43rd53%

Kansas State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (20th vs 111th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Kansas State and Arizona State, season to date
Metric	KSUKSU	ASUASU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	30.1	27.0	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	69.8	67.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	48.0%	55.7%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−0.7%	+5.2%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	45.7%	54.4%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	13%	32%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	32:44	30:43	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.8	Own 27.6	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Kansas State

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −4.0% TO PLAYIMPACT

Doubtful
Avery Johnson · QBAvery JohnsonQB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−3.9
Doubtful
Garrett Oakley · TEGarrett OakleyTE · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.1
Questionable
Blake Barnett · QBBlake BarnettQB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

Arizona State

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Harry Hassmann · WRHarry HassmannWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Jalen Williams · DBJalen WilliamsDB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Lyrik Rawls · DBLyrik RawlsDB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Doubtful
Luke Baklenko · OLLuke BaklenkoOL · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.4
Doubtful
Wade Helton · OLWade HeltonOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.2
Probable
Filiva'a Lokotui · OLFiliva'a LokotuiOL · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Available
Plas Johnson · WRPlas JohnsonWR · JRReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Xander Ruggeroli · OLXander RuggeroliOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

FRI 9:22PTotal 55.5 → 54STEAM · 4 BOOKS
FRI 9:30PTotal 55.5 → 54
FRI 10:42PTotal 54 → 53
SAT 3:15ASpread −2.5 → −1.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread KSU	−3.5	−1.5	−3.5
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	56.5	52.5	54.8
Moneyline KSU	−162	−121	−141

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

KSU −1.5 · 82% / 76%ASU +1.5 · 18% / 24%

Over · 45% / 78%Under · 55% / 22%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 33-pt gap on the over suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN2

SidelineLauren Sisler

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 75°
mph WSW · G6: 0
Precip: 12%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestKSU 7d · ASU 7d

Injury report

Kansas State

Arizona State

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew