Kansas State
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
3:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN2
Mountain America Stadium · Tempe
WIN PROB
58%
KSU
Arizona State
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- KSU −1.5
- Open −3.5 · −103
- Total
- 52.5
- Open 56.5 · o −106
- Model line
- KSU −3.5+2.0
- Model total 54.8
- Win probability
- 58%
- Projected score
- 29.2 – 25.6
- KSU – ASU
- Projected plays
- 137
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- KSU −1.5
- open −3.5
- Model
- −3.5+2.0
- KSU
- Total
- 52.5
- model 54.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Kansas State runvs Arizona State run Dvs ASU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 20th+0.09 | 111th+0.06 | 36 | KSU +8.0 |
  Arizona State passvs Kansas State pass Dvs KSU pass D | 97th−0.06 | 75th+0.01 | 36 | KSU +2.3 |
PaceKSU 30.1 s · ASU 27.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays137 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 137 | O 2.2 |
| Arizona State runvs Kansas State run Dvs KSU run D | 63rd+0.01 | 79th+0.02 | 33 | ASU +1.1 |
| Kansas State passvs Arizona State pass Dvs ASU pass D | 55th+0.01 | 69th0.00 | 33 | KSU +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · KSU +8.0
Kansas State's run game vs the Arizona State run defense
Kansas State gains +0.16 EPA a play on the run (20th); Arizona State allows +0.13 (111th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseArizona State
ASU OFFWhen Arizona State has the ball
DefenseKansas State
KSU DEF- +0.0194thEPA / play86th+0.09
- 42.6%57thSuccess rate40th40.3%
- 1.3251stExplosiveness126th1.38
- +0.0863rdRush EPA / play79th+0.09
- +0.0697thPass EPA / dropback75th+0.13
- 46.4%79thStandard downs SR28th44.2%
- 32.8%33rdPassing downs SR102nd32.3%
- 3.2465thLine yards74th3.13
- 15.7%111thHavoc rate22nd17.1%
- 4.0087thPoints / opportunity105th4.52
- +0.1158thEarly-down EPA / play44th−0.01
- 31.2%130th3rd-down conversion52nd36.4%
- 16.0%76thStuff rate44th18.3%
- 4.9%68thSack rate10th8.3%
- 54%108thRed zone TD rate115th71%
Kansas State's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (111th vs 22nd).
OffenseKansas State
KSU OFFWhen Kansas State has the ball
DefenseArizona State
ASU DEF- +0.1339thEPA / play78th+0.08
- 45.4%33rdSuccess rate78th42.8%
- 1.2974thExplosiveness122nd1.37
- +0.1620thRush EPA / play111th+0.13
- +0.1355thPass EPA / dropback69th+0.11
- 48.7%43rdStandard downs SR80th48.2%
- 34.7%17thPassing downs SR75th31.0%
- 3.4432ndLine yards102nd3.31
- 8.8%6thHavoc rate36th15.7%
- 4.5260thPoints / opportunity54th3.76
- +0.1638thEarly-down EPA / play70th+0.03
- 58.3%3rd3rd-down conversion51st36.1%
- 13.2%36thStuff rate108th13.9%
- 1.2%6thSack rate80th5.1%
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate43rd53%
Kansas State's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (20th vs 111th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | KSUKSU | ASUASU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.1 | 27.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.8 | 67.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 48.0% | 55.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.7% | +5.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 45.7% | 54.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 13% | 32% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:44 | 30:43 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.8 | Own 27.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%