SEC · 4-2 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 2-4
Auburn Tigers
HC Alex Golesh (1st yr) · OC Joel Gordon · DC DJ Durkin
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 98%
SEC · 4-2 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 2-4
Auburn
Tigers · HC Alex Golesh (1st yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Auburn
4-2 · 2-2 SEC
2 losses now · CFP 1% in sims · CCG 2% · title 1%
14 pts below the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
AUBURN · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   vs Baylor · Atlantavs Baylor | W17–16 | −6.5−6.5 | L | −0.03 | 38% | 39% | 49% | 74 | 21.1 | |
| 2 |   Southern MissSouthern Miss | W43–8 | −33−33 | W | +0.65 | 51% | 38% | 99% | 84 | 23.0 | |
| 3 |   FloridaFlorida | L39–44 | +2.5+2.5 | L | −0.09 | 45% | 39% | 29% | 65 | 20.1 | |
| 4 |   VanderbiltVanderbilt | W21–15 | −10−10 | L | +0.07 | 36% | 39% | 62% | 55 | 21.6 | |
| 5 |   at Tennesseeat Tennessee | L14–24 | +6.5+6.5 | L | −0.11 | 42% | 41% | 23% | 65 | 25.5 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   at Georgiaat Georgia | W27–24 | +19.5+19.5 | W | −0.01 | 38% | 52% | 58% | 74 | 23.5 | |
| 8 |   LSULSUNEXT | SAT 12:00 ABCSAT 12:00 | +7+7 | — | — | — | — | 28% | 149 | — | |
| 9 |   at Ole Missat Ole Miss | OCT 31OCT 31 | +8.8 proj+8.8 | 30% | |||||||
| 10 |   ArkansasArkansas | NOV 7NOV 7 | −14.1 proj−14.1 | 80% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Mississippi Stateat Mississippi State | NOV 14NOV 14 | +2.6 proj+2.6 | 44% | |||||||
| 12 |   SamfordSamford | NOV 21NOV 21 | −22.6 proj−22.6 | 91% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Alabamaat Alabama | NOV 28NOV 28 | +14.2 proj+14.2 | 20% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 390 OF 392 PLAYS390 OF 392 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun98% | 98% | 54% | +0.06 | 41% |
| Under center2% | 2% | 0% | −0.51 | 67% |
| No-huddle94% | 94% | 53% | +0.07 | 41% |
| Huddle6% | 6% | 48% | −0.25 | 39% |
In shotgun on 98 % of tagged snaps, passing 54 % of the time (+0.06 EPA a play; −0.51 under center). No-huddle on 94 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (3 of 6).
Next game
SAT 12:00 ABC · JORDAN-HARE STADIUMSAT 12:00 ABC
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 25 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 25 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | −0.9 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +2.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Auburn than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Auburn than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | AuburnAUB | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.08 | 55th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 42.5% | 59th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.30 | 59th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.14 | 26th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.06 | 97th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 32.4% | 39th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.48 | 30th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 11.1% | 136th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 45% | 34th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.03 | 85th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 71% | 36th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 22.3 | 3rd | 28.0 |