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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

Big 12 · #2 AP · 6-0 · 3-0 CONF · ATS 6-0 · O/U 3-3

BYU Cougars

HC Kalani Sitake (11th yr) · OC Aaron Roderick · DC Kelly Poppinga

STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (4 OF 5) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 92%

Power rating16.58th
CFP odds85%−1
PLAYOFFLOCK→LIKELY
Proj. wins10.6of 12
Fan pulse—12 of 30 scored

Big 12 · #2 AP · 6-0 · 3-0 CONF · ATS 6-0 · O/U 3-3

BYU

Cougars · HC Kalani Sitake (11th yr) · starts in 12 (4 of 5) · base D 4-2-5

Power rating16.58th
CFP odds · outlook85%−1LOCK→LIKELY
Proj. wins10.6of 12
Fan pulse—12 of 30 scored

BYU

#2 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12

POWER RATING16.58th in FBS
CFP ODDS85%−1 this week
PROJ. WINS10.6of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKLOCK→LIKELY

0 losses now · CFP 85% in sims · CCG 65% · title 39%

FAN PULSE—12 of 30 scored

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Latest from the beat

BYU · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

BYU schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1Utah TechUtah TechW63–7−50−50W+1.5266%17%100%6631.5
2ArizonaArizonaW28–17−7−7W+0.2452%42%73%5428.0
3at Colorado Stateat Colorado StateW41–23−17.5−17.5W+0.8373%33%92%5537.8
4BYE
5at TCUat TCUW17–10−6−6W+0.2133%36%71%6032.9
6Iowa StateIowa StateW24–10−11.5−11.5W+0.3751%28%82%5933.6
7Notre DameNotre DameW28–24+10.5+10.5W+0.2048%38%75%6628.3
8at UCFat UCFNEXTSAT 3:30 FOXSAT 3:30−7.5−7.5————73%121—
9Arizona StateArizona StateOCT 31OCT 31−21.5 proj−21.590%
10at Utahat UtahNOV 7NOV 7−0.8 proj−0.852%
11BaylorBaylorNOV 14NOV 14−15.5 proj−15.583%
12at Kansasat KansasNOV 21NOV 21−12.7 proj−12.778%
13CincinnatiCincinnatiNOV 28NOV 28−17.5 proj−17.586%

Success rate by down & distance

1st75%n 460%n 554%n 13025%n 8
2nd65%n 2368%n 2839%n 4418%n 11
3rd89%n 1859%n 2250%n 120%n 10
4th0%n 30%n 2—n 0—n 0

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 319 OF 320 PLAYS319 OF 320 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun92%92%48%+0.2951%
Under center8%8%46%+0.4265%
No-huddle1%1%100%−0.600%
Huddle99%99%47%+0.3152%
StartersSTARTERS
124 of 5 games111 of 5BASE D4-2-54 of 5
124 of 54-2-5base D · 4 of 5

In shotgun on 92 % of tagged snaps, passing 48 % of the time (+0.29 EPA a play; +0.42 under center). Starts in 12 personnel in 4 of 5 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (4 of 5).

Next game

SAT 3:30 FOX · FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMSAT 3:30 FOX

at UCFLINE−7.5MODEL−10.2WP73%

TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT

O
LJ MartinRB · SR
RB · top injury
NEXT UPP. RexΔ −0.10 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−1.3IMPACT PTS

% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported

LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −1.3 PTS

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
Big 12 crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 33 games−0.1−0.6 to +0.433NOISE
American crews— · 1 game+0.4—1NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 1 game−0.9—1NOISE
Pac-12 crews— · 1 game+0.3—1NOISE
SEC crews— · 1 game+2.8—1NOISE
Sun Belt crews— · 1 game+1.6—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDerek Anderson−1.0 / g · 4 games · noise−1.0 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMichael VanderVelde+0.2 / g · 3 games · noise+0.2 / g · 3 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on BYU than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 4 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 4 of 7 games · + = more on BYU than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

BYU offense statistics
MetricStat
BYUBYU
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.2312th+0.06
Success rate49.1%8th42.3%
Explosiveness1.26103rd1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.1717th+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.2325th+0.11
Passing downs SR32.0%49th31.1%
Line yards3.755th3.21
Sack rate allowed2.0%10th5.3%
3rd-down conversion56%4th41%
Points / opportunity5.487th4.27
Red zone TD rate83%8th63%
Seconds / play31.2123rd28.0