reportedDaily Iowan football desk@Jackson Miller, Sports Editor
1dUnconfirmed tip on Brown’s status against Minnesota on Saturday.
Hank Brown · QBCHECKING
Big Ten · #15 AP · 5-1 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
Iowa Hawkeyes
HC Kirk Ferentz (13th yr) · OC Tim Lester · DC Phil Parker
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (3 OF 5) · BASE D 4-3-4 · SHOTGUN 69%
Power rating7.826th
CFP odds9%—
PLAYOFFIN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.6of 12
Fan pulse+4▼3
Big Ten · #15 AP · 5-1 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
Iowa
Hawkeyes · HC Kirk Ferentz (13th yr) · starts in 12 (3 of 5) · base D 4-3-4
Power rating7.826th
CFP odds · outlook9%—IN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.6of 12
Fan pulse+4▼3
Iowa
#15 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten
POWER RATING7.826th in FBS
CFP ODDS9%no change
PROJ. WINS8.6of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKIN→LONG SHOT
1 loss now · CFP 9% in sims · CCG 7% · title 2%
FAN PULSE+4▼3
39 pts below the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
IOWA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedDaily Iowan football desk@Jackson Miller, Sports Editor
1dUnconfirmed tip: Hecklinski could play against Minnesota on Saturday.
Jeremy Hecklinski · QBCHECKING
rumorEliot Clough@EliotClough
2dBrown won’t play against Minnesota on Saturday, per Eliot Clough.
Hank Brown · QBCLAIM: OUTREPORT: AVAILABLE
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois | W40–0 | −32−32 | W | +1.21 | 48% | 5% | 100% | 78 | 27.4 | |
| 2 |   Iowa StateIowa State | W16–13 | −14−14 | L | +0.07 | 39% | 30% | 62% | 59 | 30.4 | |
| 3 |  Northern IowaNorthern Iowa | W55–0 | −37.5−37.5 | W | +1.25 | 78% | 23% | 100% | 65 | 33.0 | |
| 4 |   at Michiganat Michigan | W20–19 | +5+5 | W | −0.06 | 29% | 46% | 49% | 58 | 25.0 | |
| 5 |   Ohio StateOhio State | L14–31 | +14.5+14.5 | L | −0.62 | 33% | 51% | 16% | 53 | 26.0 | |
| 6 |   at Washingtonat Washington | W41–24 | +3+3 | W | +0.58 | 65% | 36% | 88% | 57 | 32.6 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   at Minnesotaat MinnesotaNEXT | SAT 3:30 FS1SAT 3:30 | −7.5−7.5 | — | — | — | — | 70% | 124 | — | |
| 9 |   WisconsinWisconsin | OCT 31OCT 31 | −4.9 proj−4.9 | 62% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Northwesternat Northwestern | NOV 7NOV 7 | +3.4 proj+3.4 | 42% | |||||||
| 11 |   PurduePurdue | NOV 14NOV 14 | −10 proj−10 | 73% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Illinoisat Illinois | NOV 21NOV 21 | −6.3 proj−6.3 | 65% | |||||||
| 13 |   NebraskaNebraska | NOV 27NOV 27 | +1.9 proj+1.9 | 45% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st0%n 1—n 055%n 1400%n 3
2nd59%n 1757%n 2331%n 4914%n 7
3rd63%n 1945%n 1135%n 200%n 7
4th0%n 1—n 0—n 0—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 297 OF 298 PLAYS297 OF 298 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun69% | 69% | 64% | +0.19 | 47% |
| Under center31% | 31% | 33% | +0.16 | 47% |
| No-huddle4% | 4% | 58% | +0.29 | 58% |
| Huddle96% | 96% | 54% | +0.18 | 46% |
StartersSTARTERS
123 of 5 games112 of 5BASE D4-3-43 of 5
123 of 54-3-4base D · 3 of 5
In shotgun on 69 % of tagged snaps, passing 64 % of the time (+0.19 EPA a play; +0.16 under center). Starts in 12 personnel in 3 of 5 games. Base defense 4-3-4 (3 of 5).
Next game
SAT 3:30 FS1 · HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMSAT 3:30 FS1
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Trent WilsonOL · SO
OL · top injuryNEXT UPC. Whitters
0%TO PLAY
−0.1IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.1 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 33 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 33 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 3 games | −1.4 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +2.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −2.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTChris Coyte−1.0 / g · 3 games · noise−1.0 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTTim O'Dey+0.6 / g · 4 games · noise+0.6 / g · 4 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Iowa than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Iowa than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #9 · SRHank Brown+0.22EPA/dropback · 53rdCPOE+0.1aDOT6.9Sack %2.4%RB · #28 · SRKamari Moulton48.7%rush SR · 60thYards per carry6.8Explosive rate10.5%Rush EPA+0.27WR · #14 · JRTony Diaz1.84YPTPA · 105thTarget share28.3%EPA / target+0.11aDOT10.3DL · #96 · SRBryce Hawthorne4havoc plays · 199thTFL4Sacks1.5Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | IowaIOWA | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.14 | 36th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 44.3% | 43rd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.26 | 100th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.11 | 46th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.18 | 39th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 29.5% | 99th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.64 | 14th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 2.5% | 17th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 42% | 60th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.71 | 45th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 75% | 15th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 27.8 | 67th | 28.0 |