reportedAdam Lichtenstein@ABLichtenstein
2dParris is doubtful against Pittsburgh on Saturday, per Adam Lichtenstein.
Milan Parris · WRCLAIM: DOUBTFULREPORT: OUT
ACC · #1 AP · 6-0 · 4-0 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 5-1
Miami Hurricanes
HC Mario Cristobal (5th yr) · OC Shannon Dawson · DC Corey Hetherman
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 4) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 98%
Power rating18.63rd
CFP odds93%—
PLAYOFFLOCK→LIKELY
Proj. wins10.7of 12
Fan pulse+11▲7
ACC · #1 AP · 6-0 · 4-0 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 5-1
Miami
Hurricanes · HC Mario Cristobal (5th yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 4) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating18.63rd
CFP odds · outlook93%—LOCK→LIKELY
Proj. wins10.7of 12
Fan pulse+11▲7
Miami
#1 · 6-0 · 4-0 ACC
POWER RATING18.63rd in FBS
CFP ODDS93%no change
PROJ. WINS10.7of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKLOCK→LIKELY
0 losses now · CFP 93% in sims · CCG 96% · title 64%
FAN PULSE+11▲7
67 pts below the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
MIAMI · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Stanfordat Stanford | W45–6 | −24.5−24.5 | W | +0.68 | 63% | 38% | 100% | 66 | 31.7 | |
| 2 |   Florida A&MFlorida A&M | W77–7 | −59.5−59.5 | W | +1.67 | 92% | 30% | 100% | 72 | 28.7 | |
| 3 |   at Wake Forestat Wake Forest | W33–20 | −20.5−20.5 | L | +0.13 | 45% | 42% | 79% | 64 | 30.8 | |
| 4 |   Central MichiganCentral Michigan | W52–3 | −41.5−41.5 | W | +1.15 | 65% | 20% | 91% | 68 | 29.5 | |
| 5 |   at Clemsonat Clemson | W41–13 | −15−15 | W | +0.37 | 52% | 39% | 97% | 62 | 34.5 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   Florida StateFlorida State | W43–35 | −20.5−20.5 | L | +0.11 | 44% | 33% | 49% | 79 | 32.8 | |
| 8 |   PittsburghPittsburghNEXT | SAT 12:00 ESPNSAT 12:00 | −20−20 | — | — | — | — | 84% | 139 | — | |
| 9 |   at North Carolinaat North Carolina | OCT 31OCT 31 | −13.5 proj−13.5 | 79% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Notre Dameat Notre Dame | NOV 7NOV 7 | +6.5 proj+6.5 | 35% | |||||||
| 11 |   DukeDuke | NOV 14NOV 14 | −19.6 proj−19.6 | 88% | |||||||
| 12 |   Virginia TechVirginia Tech | NOV 21NOV 21 | −20.6 proj−20.6 | 89% | |||||||
| 13 |   Boston CollegeBoston College | NOV 28NOV 28 | −26.9 proj−26.9 | 95% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st80%n 520%n 557%n 1430%n 4
2nd82%n 1768%n 3840%n 4029%n 7
3rd57%n 1467%n 2133%n 917%n 6
4th25%n 4100%n 1—n 0—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 304 OF 314 PLAYS304 OF 314 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun98% | 98% | 51% | +0.36 | 54% |
| Under center2% | 2% | 0% | +0.55 | 60% |
| No-huddle34% | 34% | 55% | +0.38 | 58% |
| Huddle66% | 66% | 47% | +0.35 | 51% |
StartersSTARTERS
114 of 4 gamesBASE D4-2-54 of 4
114 of 44-2-5base D · 4 of 4
In shotgun on 98 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (+0.35 EPA a play; +0.55 under center). No-huddle on 34 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 4 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (4 of 4).
Next game
SAT 12:00 ESPN · HARD ROCK STADIUMSAT 12:00 ESPN
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Max BuchananOL · SO
OL · top injuryNEXT UPB. Congdon
0%TO PLAY
−0.4IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.4 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 30 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 30 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 3 games | −2.6 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | +1.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | +0.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | +2.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | +0.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTRiley Johnson−0.6 / g · 5 games · noise−0.6 / g · 5 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTJerry Magallanes+1.0 / g · 5 games · noise+1.0 / g · 5 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Miami than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 4 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 4 of 7 games · + = more on Miami than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #10 · RS-JRDarian Mensah+0.65EPA/dropback · 1stCPOE+13.7aDOT6.8Sack %2.9%RB · #4 · SRMark Fletcher Jr.47.1%rush SR · 77thYards per carry5.5Explosive rate11.8%Rush EPA+0.11WR · #1 · SOMalachi Toney3.97YPTPA · 3rdTarget share31.9%EPA / target+0.94aDOT7.6DL · #10 · SRDamon Wilson II6havoc plays · 84thTFL4Sacks3.5Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | MiamiMIA | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.29 | 1st | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 50.1% | 5th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.32 | 47th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.14 | 30th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.37 | 3rd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 33.2% | 27th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.86 | 1st | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.1% | 29th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 52% | 11th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.66 | 4th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 88% | 5th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 31.3 | 128th | 28.0 |