Skip to content
Slate
SAT 7:30 · CHAPEL HILL
Miami
#1 · 6-0#1 · 6-0 · 4-0 ACC · ATS 4-2
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill
WIN PROB
—
 
North Carolina
4-24-2 · 2-1 ACC · ATS 4-2
Spread
MIA −14
Open −14.5
Total
50.5
Open 50.5 · o −115
Model line
—
 
Win probability
—
Projected score
—
 
Projected plays
—
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
MIA −14
open −14.5
Model
—
 
Total
50.5
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Miami passvs North Carolina pass Dvs UNC pass DBIGGEST EDGE
3rd+0.2632nd−0.0735MIA +9.4
North Carolina runvs Miami run Dvs MIA run D
52nd+0.021st−0.1533MIA +6.2
Miami runvs North Carolina run Dvs UNC run D
30th+0.0772nd+0.0133MIA +3.6
North Carolina passvs Miami pass Dvs MIA pass D
41st+0.0664th−0.0135UNC +2.6

BIGGEST EDGE · MIA +9.4

Miami's passing game vs the North Carolina pass defense

Miami gains +0.37 EPA a play on the pass (3rd); North Carolina allows +0.04 (32nd). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorth Carolina
UNC OFF

When North Carolina has the ball

DefenseMiami
MIA DEF
  • +0.1048thEPA / play25th−0.04
  • 46.0%30thSuccess rate24th38.5%
  • 1.2886thExplosiveness99th1.33
  • +0.0952ndRush EPA / play1st−0.08
  • +0.1841stPass EPA / dropback64th+0.10
  • 50.9%22ndStandard downs SR23rd43.6%
  • 31.9%47thPassing downs SR56th30.2%
  • 3.2562ndLine yards7th2.51
  • 15.2%103rdHavoc rate92nd13.3%
  • 4.6254thPoints / opportunity48th3.71
  • 63%74thRed zone TD rate7th42%

Miami's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (74th vs 7th).

OffenseMiami
MIA OFF

When Miami has the ball

DefenseNorth Carolina
UNC DEF
  • +0.291stEPA / play41st+0.01
  • 50.0%5thSuccess rate82nd43.1%
  • 1.3247thExplosiveness6th1.19
  • +0.1430thRush EPA / play72nd+0.08
  • +0.373rdPass EPA / dropback32nd+0.04
  • 54.6%2ndStandard downs SR104th49.8%
  • 33.1%28thPassing downs SR23rd28.9%
  • 3.861stLine yards119th3.40
  • 7.0%2ndHavoc rate106th12.6%
  • 5.663rdPoints / opportunity47th3.70
  • 88%5thRed zone TD rate24th47%

Miami's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (1st vs 119th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Miami and North Carolina, season to date
MetricMIAMIAUNCUNCFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral38.829.428.9
Plays per gamePlays per game68.557.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral28.6%49.0%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−14.0%+1.2%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral27.3%44.7%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations24%19%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession33:5826:5930:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.1Own 28.6Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Miami

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report7 OUT

North Carolina

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT · 6 PROBABLE

Line movement

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread MIA
−14.5−14—
Total
50.550.5—
Moneyline MIA
−637−637—

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
—
mph
—
Precip
—
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestMIA 14d · UNC 14dBOTH OFF BYE