ACC · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
North Carolina Tar Heels
HC Bill Belichick (2nd yr) · OC Bobby Petrino · DC Steve Belichick
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 94%
ACC · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
North Carolina
Tar Heels · HC Bill Belichick (2nd yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
North Carolina
4-2 · 2-1 ACC
2 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 3% · title 1%
19 pts below the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
NORTH CAROLINA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   vs TCU · Dublinvs TCU | W15–10 | +7.5+7.5 | W | +0.10 | 44% | 34% | 60% | 57 | 28.5 | |
| 2 |   East Tennessee StateEast Tennessee State | W35–3 | −36−36 | L | +0.73 | 63% | 45% | 99% | 53 | 30.2 | |
| 3 |   at Clemsonat Clemson | L20–28 | +3+3 | L | −0.14 | 43% | 42% | 27% | 69 | 30.2 | |
| 4 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 5 |   Notre DameNotre Dame | L26–37 | +21+21 | W | −0.23 | 37% | 57% | 18% | 51 | 29.2 | |
| 6 |   at Pittsburghat Pittsburgh | W21–17 | +3.5+3.5 | W | +0.06 | 39% | 41% | 60% | 49 | 31.8 | |
| 7 |   at Dukeat Duke | W24–20 | +3+3 | W | +0.02 | 48% | 41% | 59% | 63 | 27.2 | |
| 8 |   SyracuseSyracuseNEXT | SAT 7:30 ACC NetworkSAT 7:30 | −9−9 | — | — | — | — | 67% | 137 | — | |
| 9 |   MiamiMiami | OCT 31OCT 31 | +13.5 proj+13.5 | 21% | |||||||
| 10 |   at UConnat UConn | NOV 7NOV 7 | −0.6 proj−0.6 | 51% | |||||||
| 11 |   LouisvilleLouisville | NOV 14NOV 14 | +3.4 proj+3.4 | 42% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Virginiaat Virginia | NOV 21NOV 21 | +1 proj+1 | 47% | |||||||
| 13 |   NC StateNC State | NOV 28NOV 28 | −4.7 proj−4.7 | 61% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 316 OF 316 PLAYS316 OF 316 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun94% | 94% | 54% | +0.09 | 46% |
| Under center6% | 6% | 6% | −0.82 | 22% |
| No-huddle13% | 13% | 54% | −0.10 | 46% |
| Huddle87% | 87% | 51% | +0.06 | 44% |
In shotgun on 94 % of tagged snaps, passing 54 % of the time (+0.09 EPA a play; −0.82 under center). No-huddle on 13 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (3 of 6).
Next game
SAT 7:30 ACC Network · KENAN STADIUMSAT 7:30 ACC Network
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC crews−0.3 to +0.5 · 52 games | +0.1 | −0.3 to +0.5 | 52 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 3 games | −0.7 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −0.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −3.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 1 game | −3.0 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on North Carolina than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on North Carolina than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | North CarolinaUNC | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.10 | 49th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 45.8% | 31st | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.28 | 84th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.09 | 53rd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.17 | 42nd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.9% | 50th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.25 | 62nd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 6.8% | 101st | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 34% | 107th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.62 | 55th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 63% | 73rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.1 | 89th | 28.0 |