ACC · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
North Carolina Tar Heels
HC Bill Belichick (2nd yr) · OC Bobby Petrino · DC Steve Belichick
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 94%
Power rating2.751st
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.9of 12
Fan pulse−4▲7
ACC · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
North Carolina
Tar Heels · HC Bill Belichick (2nd yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating2.751st
CFP odds · outlook0%—BUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.9of 12
Fan pulse−4▲7
North Carolina
4-2 · 2-1 ACC
POWER RATING2.751st in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS6.9of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
2 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 3% · title 1%
FAN PULSE−4▲7
19 pts below the model ·Coverage →
RECORD4-2
ATS · O/U4-2 · 2-4
POSTGAME WE · AVG54%3.2 expected wins
NET EPA / PLAY+0.0941st FBS
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS (10K SIMS) · FUTURE ROWS: PREGAME WP + MODEL LINEPOSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS (10K SIMS)POSTGAME WE · 10K SIMS
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | WP · post / pre | O/U | Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   vs TCU · Dublinvs TCU | W15–10 | +7.5+7.5 | W | +0.10 | 44% | 34% | 60% | U 46.5 | — | |
EPA +0.10 · SR 44% · U 46.5WE 60% | |||||||||||
| 2 |   East Tennessee StateEast Tennessee State | W35–3 | −36−36 | L | +0.73 | 63% | 45% | 99% | U 55.5 | — | |
EPA +0.73 · SR 63% · U 55.5WE 99% | |||||||||||
| 3 |   at Clemsonat Clemson | L20–28 | +3+3 | L | −0.14 | 43% | 42% | 27% | O 44.5 | — | |
EPA −0.14 · SR 43% · O 44.5WE 27% | |||||||||||
| 4 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 5 |   Notre DameNotre Dame | L26–37 | +21+21 | W | −0.23 | 37% | 57% | 18% | O 46.5 | — | |
EPA −0.23 · SR 37% · O 46.5WE 18% | |||||||||||
| 6 |   at Pittsburghat Pittsburgh | W21–17 | +3.5+3.5 | W | +0.06 | 39% | 41% | 60% | U 47.5 | — | |
EPA +0.06 · SR 39% · U 47.5WE 60% | |||||||||||
| 7 |   at Dukeat Duke | W24–20 | +3+3 | W | +0.02 | 48% | 41% | 59% | U 46.5 | — | |
EPA +0.02 · SR 48% · U 46.5WE 59% | |||||||||||
| 8 |   SyracuseSyracuseNEXT | SAT 7:30 ACC NetworkSAT 7:30 | −9−9 | — | — | — | — | 67% | 47.5 | −7.3 | |
MODEL −7.3 · TOTAL 47.5WP 67% | |||||||||||
| 9 |   MiamiMiami | OCT 31OCT 31 | —+13.5 | 21% | +13.5 | ||||||
MODEL +13.5WP 21% | |||||||||||
| 10 |   at UConnat UConn | NOV 7NOV 7 | —+0.7 | 48% | +0.7 | ||||||
MODEL +0.7WP 48% | |||||||||||
| 11 |   LouisvilleLouisville | NOV 14NOV 14 | —+3.2 | 42% | +3.2 | ||||||
MODEL +3.2WP 42% | |||||||||||
| 12 |   at Virginiaat Virginia | NOV 21NOV 21 | —+0.3 | 49% | +0.3 | ||||||
MODEL +0.3WP 49% | |||||||||||
| 13 |   NC StateNC State | NOV 28NOV 28 | —−6.2 | 65% | −6.2 | ||||||
MODEL −6.2WP 65% | |||||||||||