Syracuse vs North Carolina

Syracuse

2-42-4 · 0-4 ACC · ATS 3-3

7:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ACC Network

Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill

WIN PROB

67%

UNC

North Carolina

4-24-2 · 2-1 ACC · ATS 4-2

Spread: UNC −9; Open −9.5 · −110
Total: 47.5; Open 44.5 · o −120
Model line: UNC −7.3+1.7; Model total 51.2
Win probability: 67%
Projected score: 22.0 – 29.2; SYR – UNC
Projected plays: 137; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: UNC −9; open −9.5
Model: −7.3+1.7; UNC
Total: 47.5; model 51.2

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Syracuse passvs North Carolina pass Dvs UNC pass DBIGGEST EDGE	88th−0.05	32nd−0.07	36	UNC +6.1
North Carolina runvs Syracuse run Dvs SYR run D	52nd+0.02	101st+0.05	33	UNC +3.7
PaceSYR 26.8 s · UNC 29.4 s a snap · avg 131 plays137 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	137	O 2.1
North Carolina passvs Syracuse pass Dvs SYR pass D	41st+0.06	29th−0.08	35	SYR +1.0
Syracuse runvs North Carolina run Dvs UNC run D	61st+0.01	72nd+0.01	33	SYR +0.9

BIGGEST EDGE · UNC +6.1

The North Carolina pass defense vs Syracuse's passing game

Syracuse gains +0.07 EPA a play on the pass (88th); North Carolina allows +0.04 (32nd). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorth Carolina

UNC OFF

When North Carolina has the ball

DefenseSyracuse

SYR DEF

+0.1048thEPA / play54th+0.03
46.0%30thSuccess rate75th42.6%
1.2886thExplosiveness68th1.30
+0.0952ndRush EPA / play101st+0.12
+0.1841stPass EPA / dropback29th+0.03
50.9%22ndStandard downs SR84th48.5%
31.9%47thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
3.2562ndLine yards63rd3.05
15.2%103rdHavoc rate10th18.5%
4.6254thPoints / opportunity93rd4.31
63%74thRed zone TD rate112th70%

North Carolina's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (103rd vs 10th).

OffenseSyracuse

SYR OFF

When Syracuse has the ball

DefenseNorth Carolina

UNC DEF

+0.0477thEPA / play41st+0.01
42.5%58thSuccess rate82nd43.1%
1.3068thExplosiveness6th1.19
+0.0861stRush EPA / play72nd+0.08
+0.0788thPass EPA / dropback32nd+0.04
46.9%71stStandard downs SR104th49.8%
31.8%48thPassing downs SR23rd28.9%
2.87123rdLine yards119th3.40
14.8%93rdHavoc rate106th12.6%
3.67108thPoints / opportunity47th3.70
54%109thRed zone TD rate24th47%

North Carolina's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (109th vs 24th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Syracuse and North Carolina, season to date
Metric	SYRSYR	UNCUNC	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	26.8	29.4	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	80.0	57.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	49.5%	49.0%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−0.3%	+1.2%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	45.3%	44.7%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	33%	19%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	33:48	26:59	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 31.3	Own 28.6	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Syracuse

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −5.0% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Amari Odom · QBAmari OdomQB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−3.1
Out
D'Joni Scatliffe · OLD'Joni ScatliffeOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Darien Williams · WRDarien WilliamsWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Jackson Iak · OLJackson IakOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Malachi Nelson · QBMalachi NelsonQB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−1.2
Out
Matthew Hawn · OLMatthew HawnOL · FRReport trail: Available, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Probable
Antoine Deslauriers · LBAntoine DeslauriersLB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Steve Angeli · QBSteve AngeliQB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Tripp Woody · KTripp WoodyK · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0

North Carolina

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Tre Miller · DBTre MillerDB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Vodney Cleveland · DLVodney ClevelandDL · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ashton Blatt · LBAshton BlattLB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jakob Weatherspoon · DBJakob WeatherspoonDB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu · DLJimmy-Phrisco Alo-SuliafuDL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Keeyun Chapman · WRKeeyun ChapmanWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Mason Humphrey · WRMason HumphreyWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Viliami Moala · DLViliami MoalaDL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Probable
Aeron Burrell · KAeron BurrellK · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Benjamin Hall · RBBenjamin HallRB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Jordan Hall · OLJordan HallOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Jordan Shipp · WRJordan ShippWR · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.6
Probable
Kaleb Cost · DBKaleb CostDB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Peyton Waters · DBPeyton WatersDB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

WED 3:30PSpread −9 → −7.5 · 76% tickets UNCSpread −9 → −7.5 · 76% on UNCRLM
WED 8:36PSpread −7.5 → −8.5
THU 8:01PSpread −8.5 → −9.5
FRI 5:55PTotal 46.5 → 47.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread UNCRLM	−9.5	−9	−7.3
TotalSTEAM · 6 BOOKS	44.5	47.5	51.2
Moneyline UNC	−347	−350	−203

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

SYR +9 · 24% / 38%UNC −9 · 76% / 62%

Over · 100% / 100%Under · 0% / 0%

DraftKings bettors, as of 5:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 14-pt gap on SYR suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ACC Network

Play-by-playJustin Kutcher

AnalystMax Browne

SidelineMadison Fitzpatrick

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Clear: 60°
mph NE: 6
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestSYR 7d · UNC 7d

Injury report

Syracuse

North Carolina

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew