Syracuse
2-42-4 · 0-4 ACC · ATS 3-3
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ACC Network
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill
WIN PROB
67%
UNC
North Carolina
4-24-2 · 2-1 ACC · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- UNC −9
- Open −9.5 · −110
- Total
- 47.5
- Open 44.5 · o −120
- Model line
- UNC −7.3+1.7
- Model total 51.2
- Win probability
- 67%
- Projected score
- 22.0 – 29.2
- SYR – UNC
- Projected plays
- 137
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UNC −9
- open −9.5
- Model
- −7.3+1.7
- UNC
- Total
- 47.5
- model 51.2
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Syracuse passvs North Carolina pass Dvs UNC pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 88th−0.05 | 32nd−0.07 | 36 | UNC +6.1 |
  North Carolina runvs Syracuse run Dvs SYR run D | 52nd+0.02 | 101st+0.05 | 33 | UNC +3.7 |
PaceSYR 26.8 s · UNC 29.4 s a snap · avg 131 plays137 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 137 | O 2.1 |
| North Carolina passvs Syracuse pass Dvs SYR pass D | 41st+0.06 | 29th−0.08 | 35 | SYR +1.0 |
| Syracuse runvs North Carolina run Dvs UNC run D | 61st+0.01 | 72nd+0.01 | 33 | SYR +0.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UNC +6.1
The North Carolina pass defense vs Syracuse's passing game
Syracuse gains +0.07 EPA a play on the pass (88th); North Carolina allows +0.04 (32nd). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNorth Carolina
UNC OFFWhen North Carolina has the ball
DefenseSyracuse
SYR DEF- +0.1048thEPA / play54th+0.03
- 46.0%30thSuccess rate75th42.6%
- 1.2886thExplosiveness68th1.30
- +0.0952ndRush EPA / play101st+0.12
- +0.1841stPass EPA / dropback29th+0.03
- 50.9%22ndStandard downs SR84th48.5%
- 31.9%47thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
- 3.2562ndLine yards63rd3.05
- 15.2%103rdHavoc rate10th18.5%
- 4.6254thPoints / opportunity93rd4.31
- +0.0485thEarly-down EPA / play73rd+0.04
- 34.4%106th3rd-down conversion49th35.9%
- 14.9%58thStuff rate11th23.8%
- 6.8%100thSack rate53rd6.1%
- 63%74thRed zone TD rate112th70%
North Carolina's offense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (103rd vs 10th).
OffenseSyracuse
SYR OFFWhen Syracuse has the ball
DefenseNorth Carolina
UNC DEF- +0.0477thEPA / play41st+0.01
- 42.5%58thSuccess rate82nd43.1%
- 1.3068thExplosiveness6th1.19
- +0.0861stRush EPA / play72nd+0.08
- +0.0788thPass EPA / dropback32nd+0.04
- 46.9%71stStandard downs SR104th49.8%
- 31.8%48thPassing downs SR23rd28.9%
- 2.87123rdLine yards119th3.40
- 14.8%93rdHavoc rate106th12.6%
- 3.67108thPoints / opportunity47th3.70
- +0.0486thEarly-down EPA / play62nd+0.02
- 42.9%54th3rd-down conversion109th42.9%
- 17.2%92ndStuff rate138th8.2%
- 6.4%97thSack rate59th5.9%
- 54%109thRed zone TD rate24th47%
North Carolina's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (109th vs 24th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SYRSYR | UNCUNC | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.8 | 29.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 80.0 | 57.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 49.5% | 49.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.3% | +1.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 45.3% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 33% | 19% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:48 | 26:59 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.3 | Own 28.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%