Miami
#1 · 6-0#1 · 6-0 · 4-0 ACC · ATS 4-2
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill
WIN PROB
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North Carolina
4-24-2 · 2-1 ACC · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- MIA −14
- Open −14.5
- Total
- 50.5
- Open 50.5 · o −115
- Model line
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- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- MIA −14
- open −14.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 50.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Miami passvs North Carolina pass Dvs UNC pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 3rd+0.26 | 32nd−0.07 | 35 | MIA +9.4 |
  North Carolina runvs Miami run Dvs MIA run D | 52nd+0.02 | 1st−0.15 | 33 | MIA +6.2 |
| Miami runvs North Carolina run Dvs UNC run D | 30th+0.07 | 72nd+0.01 | 33 | MIA +3.6 |
| North Carolina passvs Miami pass Dvs MIA pass D | 41st+0.06 | 64th−0.01 | 35 | UNC +2.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MIA +9.4
Miami's passing game vs the North Carolina pass defense
Miami gains +0.37 EPA a play on the pass (3rd); North Carolina allows +0.04 (32nd). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNorth Carolina
UNC OFFWhen North Carolina has the ball
DefenseMiami
MIA DEF- +0.1048thEPA / play25th−0.04
- 46.0%30thSuccess rate24th38.5%
- 1.2886thExplosiveness99th1.33
- +0.0952ndRush EPA / play1st−0.08
- +0.1841stPass EPA / dropback64th+0.10
- 50.9%22ndStandard downs SR23rd43.6%
- 31.9%47thPassing downs SR56th30.2%
- 3.2562ndLine yards7th2.51
- 15.2%103rdHavoc rate92nd13.3%
- 4.6254thPoints / opportunity48th3.71
- +0.0485thEarly-down EPA / play45th−0.01
- 34.4%106th3rd-down conversion35th34.4%
- 14.9%58thStuff rate28th20.0%
- 6.8%100thSack rate17th7.8%
- 63%74thRed zone TD rate7th42%
Miami's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (100th vs 17th).
OffenseMiami
MIA OFFWhen Miami has the ball
DefenseNorth Carolina
UNC DEF- +0.291stEPA / play41st+0.01
- 50.0%5thSuccess rate82nd43.1%
- 1.3247thExplosiveness6th1.19
- +0.1430thRush EPA / play72nd+0.08
- +0.373rdPass EPA / dropback32nd+0.04
- 54.6%2ndStandard downs SR104th49.8%
- 33.1%28thPassing downs SR23rd28.9%
- 3.861stLine yards119th3.40
- 7.0%2ndHavoc rate106th12.6%
- 5.663rdPoints / opportunity47th3.70
- +0.421stEarly-down EPA / play62nd+0.02
- 52.0%13th3rd-down conversion109th42.9%
- 7.8%1stStuff rate138th8.2%
- 3.1%29thSack rate59th5.9%
- 88%5thRed zone TD rate24th47%
Miami's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (1st vs 138th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MIAMIA | UNCUNC | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 38.8 | 29.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.5 | 57.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 28.6% | 49.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −14.0% | +1.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 27.3% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 24% | 19% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:58 | 26:59 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.1 | Own 28.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%