reportedTony Liebert@TonyLiebert
2dBall is questionable against Iowa on Saturday, per Tony Liebert.
Jaden Ball · OLCLAIM: QUESTIONABLEREPORT: PROBABLE
Big Ten · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3
Minnesota Golden Gophers
HC P.J. Fleck (10th yr) · OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. · DC Danny Collins
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (3 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 69%
Power rating−3.692nd
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→OUT
Proj. wins5.4of 12
Fan pulse+8▲10
Big Ten · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3
Minnesota
Golden Gophers · HC P.J. Fleck (10th yr) · starts in 12 (3 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating−3.692nd
CFP odds · outlook0%—BUBBLE→OUT
Proj. wins5.4of 12
Fan pulse+8▲10
Minnesota
4-2 · 2-1 Big Ten
POWER RATING−3.692nd in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS5.4of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→OUT
2 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
FAN PULSE+8▲10
18 pts above the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
MINNESOTA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedAndy Greder@andygreder
2dBall is questionable against Iowa on Saturday, per Andy Greder.
Jaden Ball · OLCLAIM: QUESTIONABLEREPORT: PROBABLE
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Eastern IllinoisEastern Illinois | W59–7 | −42.5−42.5 | W | +0.43 | 62% | 17% | 100% | 71 | 31.5 | |
| 2 |   Mississippi StateMississippi State | L13–38 | +0.5+0.5 | L | −0.68 | 41% | 64% | 1% | 63 | 26.0 | |
| 3 |   AkronAkron | W41–7 | −22.5−22.5 | W | +0.38 | 44% | 31% | 97% | 63 | 33.9 | |
| 4 |   at Washingtonat Washington | W27–24 | +12.5+12.5 | W | +0.17 | 40% | 37% | 56% | 62 | 34.5 | |
| 5 |   MichiganMichigan | W20–14 | +6.5+6.5 | W | 0.00 | 40% | 37% | 64% | 63 | 37.2 | |
| 6 |   at Purdueat Purdue | L13–41 | −2.5−2.5 | L | −0.50 | 29% | 51% | 4% | 52 | 26.1 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   IowaIowaNEXT | SAT 3:30 FS1SAT 3:30 | +7.5+7.5 | — | — | — | — | 30% | 124 | — | |
| 9 |   at Indianaat Indiana | OCT 31OCT 31 | +22.2 proj+22.2 | 9% | |||||||
| 10 |   UCLAUCLA | NOV 7NOV 7 | +12.5 proj+12.5 | 22% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Penn Stateat Penn State | NOV 14NOV 14 | +12.3 proj+12.3 | 23% | |||||||
| 12 |   NorthwesternNorthwestern | NOV 21NOV 21 | +9.5 proj+9.5 | 28% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Wisconsinat Wisconsin | NOV 27NOV 27 | +11 proj+11 | 25% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st100%n 325%n 450%n 12433%n 6
2nd48%n 2142%n 1924%n 4625%n 12
3rd61%n 2335%n 1729%n 1714%n 14
4th80%n 50%n 2—n 0—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 312 OF 313 PLAYS312 OF 313 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun69% | 69% | 75% | −0.01 | 40% |
| Under center31% | 31% | 22% | −0.15 | 46% |
| No-huddle14% | 14% | 73% | +0.10 | 51% |
| Huddle86% | 86% | 56% | −0.08 | 40% |
StartersSTARTERS
123 of 6 games112 of 6BASE D4-2-56 of 6
123 of 64-2-5base D · 6 of 6
In shotgun on 69 % of tagged snaps, passing 75 % of the time (−0.01 EPA a play; −0.15 under center). No-huddle on 14 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 3 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:30 FS1 · HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMSAT 3:30 FS1
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Hayden MooreWR · FR
WR · top injuryNEXT UPJ. JohnsonΔ −0.18 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−0.4IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.4 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.5 to +0.3 · 50 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.3 | 50 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +1.6 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | +0.7 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 2 games | +2.1 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −0.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTKole Knueppel−0.9 / g · 6 games · noise−0.9 / g · 6 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTJerry McGinn+1.3 / g · 4 games · noise+1.3 / g · 4 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Minnesota than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Minnesota than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #5 · RS-JRDrake Lindsey+0.10EPA/dropback · 87thCPOE+0.5aDOT7.1Sack %1.0%RB · #1 · SRDarius Taylor36.5%rush SR · 200thYards per carry2.6Explosive rate1.6%Rush EPA−0.32WR · #13 · SRNoah Jennings1.76YPTPA · 122ndTarget share25.4%EPA / target+0.12aDOT11.1DL · #3 · SRTJ Bush Jr.10havoc plays · 12thTFL9Sacks4Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | MinnesotaMINN | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.06 | 116th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.0% | 97th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.22 | 120th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.10 | 138th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.05 | 99th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 27.4% | 125th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.28 | 138th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 1.6% | 8th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 38% | 90th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.67 | 108th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 60% | 84th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 31.2 | 124th | 28.0 |