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SAT 3:30 · CBS · BLOOMINGTON
Minnesota
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CBS
Memorial Stadium · Bloomington
WIN PROB
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Indiana
#6 · 6-1#6 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten · ATS 1-6
Spread
IU −22.5
Open −22.5
Total
45.5
Open 45.5
Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
IU −22.5
open −22.5
Model
—
 
Total
45.5
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Minnesota runvs Indiana run Dvs IU run DBIGGEST EDGE
138th−0.1717th−0.0928IU +10.8
Minnesota passvs Indiana pass Dvs IU pass D
99th−0.0625th−0.0940IU +8.9
Indiana passvs Minnesota pass Dvs MINN pass D
5th+0.2431st−0.0833IU +7.7
Indiana runvs Minnesota run Dvs MINN run D
75th−0.0190th+0.0335IU +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · IU +10.8

The Indiana run defense vs Minnesota's run game

Minnesota gains −0.10 EPA a play on the run (138th); Indiana allows −0.02 (17th). About 28 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseIndiana
IU OFF

When Indiana has the ball

DefenseMinnesota
MINN DEF
  • +0.2117thEPA / play69th+0.05
  • 43.8%48thSuccess rate76th42.7%
  • 1.442ndExplosiveness70th1.30
  • +0.0675thRush EPA / play90th+0.10
  • +0.355thPass EPA / dropback31st+0.04
  • 48.7%44thStandard downs SR56th46.5%
  • 31.6%53rdPassing downs SR117th33.5%
  • 3.2368thLine yards110th3.37
  • 11.6%33rdHavoc rate12th18.2%
  • 4.4961stPoints / opportunity130th5.09
  • 70%44thRed zone TD rate132nd81%

Indiana's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (44th vs 132nd).

OffenseMinnesota
MINN OFF

When Minnesota has the ball

DefenseIndiana
IU DEF
  • −0.06116thEPA / play18th−0.06
  • 40.0%95thSuccess rate12th37.1%
  • 1.22120thExplosiveness72nd1.30
  • −0.10138thRush EPA / play17th−0.02
  • +0.0599thPass EPA / dropback25th+0.02
  • 47.2%65thStandard downs SR10th41.8%
  • 27.4%124thPassing downs SR69th30.8%
  • 2.28138thLine yards20th2.73
  • 11.8%37thHavoc rate49th15.2%
  • 3.67108thPoints / opportunity15th3.08
  • 60%84thRed zone TD rate16th46%

Indiana's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (138th vs 17th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Minnesota and Indiana, season to date
MetricMINNMINNIUIUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral36.427.528.9
Plays per gamePlays per game62.360.165.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral48.2%55.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+0.7%+3.5%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral46.2%46.6%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations17%26%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:4729:3630:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 35.5Own 31.8Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Minnesota

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report7 OUT FOR SEASON · 2 OUT · 3 PROBABLE

Indiana

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)

Line movement

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread IU
−22.5−22.5—
Total
45.545.5—
Moneyline IU
−2100−2100—

Broadcast

CBS
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

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Precip
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Surface
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RefereeCrew TBA
RestMINN 21d · IU 14dBOTH OFF BYE