Minnesota
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CBS
Memorial Stadium · Bloomington
WIN PROB
—
Indiana
#6 · 6-1#6 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten · ATS 1-6
- Spread
- IU −22.5
- Open −22.5
- Total
- 45.5
- Open 45.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- IU −22.5
- open −22.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 45.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Minnesota runvs Indiana run Dvs IU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 138th−0.17 | 17th−0.09 | 28 | IU +10.8 |
| Minnesota passvs Indiana pass Dvs IU pass D | 99th−0.06 | 25th−0.09 | 40 | IU +8.9 |
  Indiana passvs Minnesota pass Dvs MINN pass D | 5th+0.24 | 31st−0.08 | 33 | IU +7.7 |
| Indiana runvs Minnesota run Dvs MINN run D | 75th−0.01 | 90th+0.03 | 35 | IU +1.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · IU +10.8
The Indiana run defense vs Minnesota's run game
Minnesota gains −0.10 EPA a play on the run (138th); Indiana allows −0.02 (17th). About 28 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseIndiana
IU OFFWhen Indiana has the ball
DefenseMinnesota
MINN DEF- +0.2117thEPA / play69th+0.05
- 43.8%48thSuccess rate76th42.7%
- 1.442ndExplosiveness70th1.30
- +0.0675thRush EPA / play90th+0.10
- +0.355thPass EPA / dropback31st+0.04
- 48.7%44thStandard downs SR56th46.5%
- 31.6%53rdPassing downs SR117th33.5%
- 3.2368thLine yards110th3.37
- 11.6%33rdHavoc rate12th18.2%
- 4.4961stPoints / opportunity130th5.09
- +0.2414thEarly-down EPA / play79th+0.06
- 47.1%29th3rd-down conversion38th34.6%
- 16.2%78thStuff rate98th14.6%
- 4.2%48thSack rate6th9.0%
- 70%44thRed zone TD rate132nd81%
Indiana's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (44th vs 132nd).
OffenseMinnesota
MINN OFFWhen Minnesota has the ball
DefenseIndiana
IU DEF- −0.06116thEPA / play18th−0.06
- 40.0%95thSuccess rate12th37.1%
- 1.22120thExplosiveness72nd1.30
- −0.10138thRush EPA / play17th−0.02
- +0.0599thPass EPA / dropback25th+0.02
- 47.2%65thStandard downs SR10th41.8%
- 27.4%124thPassing downs SR69th30.8%
- 2.28138thLine yards20th2.73
- 11.8%37thHavoc rate49th15.2%
- 3.67108thPoints / opportunity15th3.08
- −0.06117thEarly-down EPA / play30th−0.06
- 38.0%90th3rd-down conversion94th41.0%
- 22.5%132ndStuff rate50th18.0%
- 1.6%8thSack rate14th8.1%
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Indiana's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (138th vs 17th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MINNMINN | IUIU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 36.4 | 27.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.3 | 60.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 48.2% | 55.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.7% | +3.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 46.2% | 46.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 17% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:47 | 29:36 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 35.5 | Own 31.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%