MAC · 1-6 · 0-4 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 3-4
Sacramento State Hornets
HC Alonzo Carter (1st yr) · OC Eric Kiesau · DC Adam Clark
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 96%
MAC · 1-6 · 0-4 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 3-4
Sacramento State
Hornets · HC Alonzo Carter (1st yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 3-3-5
Sacramento State
1-6 · 0-4 MAC
6 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
Latest from the beat
SACRAMENTO STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Eastern Michiganat Eastern Michigan | L17–28 | +9.5+9.5 | L | −0.19 | 35% | 43% | 25% | 62 | 27.5 | |
| 1 |   Mississippi Valley StateMississippi Valley State | W52–0 | −38.5−38.5 | W | +0.62 | 38% | 8% | 100% | 69 | 29.6 | |
| 2 |   at Fresno Stateat Fresno State | L3–49 | +18+18 | L | −0.82 | 40% | 53% | 0% | 66 | 17.3 | |
| 3 |   North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State | L10–31 | +25.5+25.5 | W | −0.52 | 37% | 32% | 13% | 66 | 29.1 | |
| 4 |   MassachusettsMassachusetts | L6–35 | +6+6 | L | −0.57 | 49% | 42% | 4% | 77 | 24.7 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   at Bowling Greenat Bowling Green | L10–38 | +9.5+9.5 | L | −0.43 | 40% | 48% | 7% | 62 | 27.7 | |
| 7 |   OhioOhio | L7–48 | +17.5+17.5 | L | −0.91 | 24% | 56% | 0% | 52 | 32.0 | |
| 8 |   at Ball Stateat Ball StateNEXT | SAT 3:30 ESPN+SAT 3:30 | +14.5+14.5 | — | — | — | — | 26% | 127 | — | |
| 9 |   Kent StateKent State | OCT 30OCT 30 | +6.4 proj+6.4 | 35% | |||||||
| 10 |   ToledoToledo | NOV 4NOV 4 | +22.5 proj+22.5 | 9% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Central Michiganat Central Michigan | NOV 11NOV 11 | +13.7 proj+13.7 | 20% | |||||||
| 12 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 13 |   at Hawai'iat Hawai'i | NOV 28NOV 28 | +13.3 proj+13.3 | 21% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 308 OF 310 PLAYS308 OF 310 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun96% | 96% | 64% | −0.24 | 38% |
| Under center4% | 4% | 33% | +0.29 | 58% |
| No-huddle14% | 14% | 73% | −0.06 | 43% |
| Huddle86% | 86% | 61% | −0.25 | 38% |
In shotgun on 96 % of tagged snaps, passing 64 % of the time (−0.24 EPA a play; +0.29 under center). No-huddle on 14 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (5 of 7).
Next game
SAT 3:30 ESPN+ · SCHEUMANN STADIUMSAT 3:30 ESPN+
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC crews— · 6 games | −0.2 | — | 6 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 4 games | +0.5 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 2 games | −0.4 | — | 2 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Sacramento State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Sacramento State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Sacramento StateSAC | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.20 | 138th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 128th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.15 | 138th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.04 | 125th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | −0.14 | 138th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 26.1% | 135th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.48 | 137th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.7% | 58th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 33% | 117th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 2.52 | 136th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 31% | 138th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 28.1 | 71st | 28.0 |