Pac-12 · 3-3 · 1-1 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 5-1
Texas State Bobcats
HC G.J. Kinne (4th yr) · OC Landon Keopple · DC Will Windham
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 100%
Pac-12 · 3-3 · 1-1 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 5-1
Texas State
Bobcats · HC G.J. Kinne (4th yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Texas State
3-3 · 1-1 Pac-12
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 18% · title 7%
Latest from the beat
TEXAS STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Texasat Texas | L7–59 | +29.5+29.5 | L | −0.68 | 39% | 53% | 0% | 69 | 27.5 | |
| 2 |   UTSAUTSA | L26–31 | −1.5−1.5 | L | −0.01 | 47% | 46% | 42% | 78 | 24.6 | |
| 3 |   North TexasNorth Texas | W49–35 | −3−3 | W | +0.27 | 59% | 52% | 76% | 70 | 25.1 | |
| 4 |  Incarnate WordIncarnate Word | W63–10 | −30.5−30.5 | W | +0.89 | 49% | 37% | 100% | 67 | 28.4 | |
| 5 |   at San Diego Stateat San Diego State | L29–31 | −10−10 | L | +0.24 | 48% | 37% | 44% | 101 | 25.0 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   Colorado StateColorado State | W66–27 | −15.5−15.5 | W | +0.57 | 67% | 42% | 95% | 72 | 24.8 | |
| 8 |   Utah StateUtah StateNEXT | SAT 7:30 CBSSNSAT 7:30 | −13.5−13.5 | — | — | — | — | 76% | 138 | — | |
| 9 |   at Boise Stateat Boise State | OCT 31OCT 31 | +9.4 proj+9.4 | 28% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Oregon Stateat Oregon State | NOV 7NOV 7 | +7.7 proj+7.7 | 32% | |||||||
| 11 |   Fresno StateFresno State | NOV 14NOV 14 | −4.8 proj−4.8 | 61% | |||||||
| 12 |   Washington StateWashington State | NOV 21NOV 21 | −11.1 proj−11.1 | 75% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 372 OF 378 PLAYS372 OF 378 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 40% | +0.32 | 51% |
| Under center0% | 0% | 0% | −3.55 | 0% |
| No-huddle98% | 98% | 40% | +0.33 | 51% |
| Huddle2% | 2% | 38% | −0.69 | 38% |
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 40 % of the time (+0.32 EPA a play; −3.55 under center). No-huddle on 98 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 6).
Next game
SAT 7:30 CBSSN · BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)SAT 7:30 CBSSN
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Belt crews−0.6 to +0.2 · 38 games | −0.2 | −0.6 to +0.2 | 38 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 5 games | +0.2 | — | 5 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 3 games | +0.6 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | −0.7 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | +0.7 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 2 games | +2.2 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 1 game | +5.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | −1.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Texas State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Texas State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Texas StateTXST | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.18 | 21st | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.5% | 23rd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.34 | 38th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.16 | 20th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.27 | 12th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 38.5% | 2nd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.55 | 22nd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 2.0% | 11th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 60% | 2nd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.69 | 47th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 67% | 55th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 24.7 | 14th | 28.0 |