Utah State vs Texas State

Utah State

2-42-4 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3

7:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · CBSSN

Bobcat Stadium · San Marcos

WIN PROB

76%

TXST

Texas State

3-33-3 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3

Spread: TXST −13.5; Open −9.5 · −110
Total: 61; Open 59.5 · o −106
Model line: TXST −11.7+1.8; Model total 54.1
Win probability: 76%
Projected score: 21.2 – 32.9; USU – TXST
Projected plays: 138; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: TXST −13.5; open −9.5
Model: −11.7+1.8; TXST
Total: 61; model 54.1

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Utah State runvs Texas State run Dvs TXST run DBIGGEST EDGE	124th−0.10	45th−0.04	32	TXST +6.5
Texas State passvs Utah State pass Dvs USU pass D	12th+0.16	59th−0.02	28	TXST +5.7
Utah State passvs Texas State pass Dvs TXST pass D	136th−0.22	123rd+0.12	37	TXST +5.4
Texas State runvs Utah State run Dvs USU run D	20th+0.09	65th−0.01	42	TXST +4.9
PaceUSU 24.1 s · TXST 24.2 s a snap · avg 131 plays138 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	138	O 2.7

BIGGEST EDGE · TXST +6.5

The Texas State run defense vs Utah State's run game

Utah State gains −0.03 EPA a play on the run (124th); Texas State allows +0.03 (45th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseTexas State

TXST OFF

When Texas State has the ball

DefenseUtah State

USU DEF

+0.1821stEPA / play43rd+0.02
46.5%23rdSuccess rate44th40.6%
1.3438thExplosiveness40th1.27
+0.1620thRush EPA / play65th+0.06
+0.2712thPass EPA / dropback59th+0.10
48.1%53rdStandard downs SR61st46.7%
38.5%2ndPassing downs SR41st29.7%
3.5522ndLine yards47th2.89
10.1%16thHavoc rate102nd12.9%
4.6947thPoints / opportunity47th3.69
67%55thRed zone TD rate29th50%

Texas State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (16th vs 102nd).

OffenseUtah State

USU OFF

When Utah State has the ball

DefenseTexas State

TXST DEF

−0.13135thEPA / play113th+0.14
35.0%134thSuccess rate112th45.6%
1.3063rdExplosiveness79th1.31
−0.03124thRush EPA / play45th+0.03
−0.11136thPass EPA / dropback123rd+0.24
39.4%137thStandard downs SR109th50.1%
29.8%95thPassing downs SR113th33.3%
3.00100thLine yards36th2.82
17.9%131stHavoc rate84th13.7%
2.32138thPoints / opportunity93rd4.30
50%119thRed zone TD rate93rd65%

Texas State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (124th vs 45th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Utah State and Texas State, season to date
Metric	USUUSU	TXSTTXST	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	24.1	24.2	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	62.0	76.2	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	49.7%	41.6%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−3.0%	−10.0%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	51.8%	36.5%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	23%	40%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	25:47	30:26	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 31.2	Own 28.9	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Utah State

PAC-12 REPORT · FRI 10:09 PMNET −1.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Chris Joe · LBChris JoeLB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Jude Nelson · TEJude NelsonTE · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out for season
Nikko Boncore · WRNikko BoncoreWR · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Dakota Howell · LBDakota HowellLB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Diego Grateron · LBDiego GrateronLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Harrison Taggart · LBHarrison TaggartLB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
John Randle Jr. · OLJohn Randle Jr.OL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Joshua Papu · DTJoshua PapuDT · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Rex Haynes · WRRex HaynesWR · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Questionable
Chapman Lewis · SChapman LewisS · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Eli Wood · WREli WoodWR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.3
Probable
Jackson Nelson · OLJackson NelsonOL · FRReport trail: Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
James Jennette · LBJames JennetteLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Javon Robinson · WRJavon RobinsonWR · SRReport trail: Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Jordan Pendleton · LBJordan PendletonLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

Texas State

PAC-12 REPORT · FRI 10:09 PMNET −0.9% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Cole Nilles · LBCole NillesLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Cole Snodgrass · TECole SnodgrassTE · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Jordan Sample · LBJordan SampleLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Josh Selmes · SPJosh SelmesSPReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
——
Out
Mekhi Buchanan · DLMekhi BuchananDL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ryan Nolan · DBRyan NolanDB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Questionable
Davian Jackson · RBDavian JacksonRB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.2
Questionable
DonTerry Russell · DLDonTerry RussellDL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
JP Deeter · DLJP DeeterDLReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
——
Questionable
Jo'Laison Landry · DLJo'Laison LandryDL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Justin DeLeon · OLJustin DeLeonOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Blake Smith · TEBlake SmithTE · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Bryce Carter · DLBryce CarterDL · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Mike James · SPMike JamesSPReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
——

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

TUE 2:09PSpread −12.5 → −13.5
THU 8:01PTotal 60.5 → 61.5
FRI 7:15PTotal 61.5 → 60.5
FRI 8:10PTotal 61.5 → 60.5 · 67% tickets overTotal 61.5 → 60.5 · 67% on overRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread TXSTSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	−9.5	−13.5	−11.7
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKSRLM	59.5	61.0	54.1
Moneyline TXST	−362	−550	−319

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

USU +13.5 · 31% / 3%TXST −13.5 · 69% / 97%

Over · 67% / 59%Under · 33% / 41%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:45 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 28-pt gap on TXST suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

CBSSN

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Partly Cloudy: 85°
mph SE · G20: 10
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestUSU 15d · TXST 9dUSU OFF BYE

Injury report

Utah State

Texas State

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew