Utah State
2-42-4 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · CBSSN
Bobcat Stadium · San Marcos
WIN PROB
76%
TXST
Texas State
3-33-3 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- TXST −13.5
- Open −9.5 · −110
- Total
- 60.5
- Open 59.5 · o −110
- Model line
- TXST −11.7+1.8
- Model total 54.1
- Win probability
- 76%
- Projected score
- 21.2 – 32.9
- USU – TXST
- Projected plays
- 138
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TXST −13.5
- open −9.5
- Model
- −11.7+1.8
- TXST
- Total
- 60.5
- model 54.1
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Utah State runvs Texas State run Dvs TXST run DBIGGEST EDGE | 125th−0.10 | 47th−0.04 | 32 | TXST +6.5 |
  Texas State passvs Utah State pass Dvs USU pass D | 12th+0.16 | 60th−0.02 | 28 | TXST +5.7 |
| Utah State passvs Texas State pass Dvs TXST pass D | 136th−0.22 | 123rd+0.12 | 37 | TXST +5.4 |
| Texas State runvs Utah State run Dvs USU run D | 21st+0.09 | 65th−0.01 | 42 | TXST +4.9 |
PaceUSU 24.1 s · TXST 24.2 s a snap · avg 131 plays138 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 138 | O 2.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TXST +6.5
The Texas State run defense vs Utah State's run game
Utah State gains −0.03 EPA a play on the run (125th); Texas State allows +0.03 (47th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseTexas State
TXST OFFWhen Texas State has the ball
DefenseUtah State
USU DEF- +0.1821stEPA / play44th+0.02
- 46.5%24thSuccess rate46th40.6%
- 1.3439thExplosiveness39th1.27
- +0.1621stRush EPA / play65th+0.06
- +0.2712thPass EPA / dropback60th+0.10
- 48.1%53rdStandard downs SR61st46.7%
- 38.5%2ndPassing downs SR41st29.6%
- 3.5521stLine yards47th2.89
- 10.1%15thHavoc rate102nd12.9%
- 4.6945thPoints / opportunity45th3.69
- +0.304thEarly-down EPA / play35th−0.03
- 59.7%2nd3rd-down conversion80th39.8%
- 11.3%19thStuff rate49th18.1%
- 2.0%11thSack rate110th4.1%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Texas State's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (11th vs 110th).
OffenseUtah State
USU OFFWhen Utah State has the ball
DefenseTexas State
TXST DEF- −0.13135thEPA / play111th+0.14
- 35.0%134thSuccess rate114th45.6%
- 1.3063rdExplosiveness81st1.31
- −0.03125thRush EPA / play47th+0.03
- −0.11136thPass EPA / dropback123rd+0.24
- 39.4%137thStandard downs SR111th50.1%
- 29.7%94thPassing downs SR114th33.3%
- 3.00101stLine yards36th2.82
- 17.9%131stHavoc rate82nd13.7%
- 2.32138thPoints / opportunity92nd4.30
- −0.17135thEarly-down EPA / play97th+0.08
- 37.7%92nd3rd-down conversion81st40.0%
- 21.0%123rdStuff rate10th24.3%
- 9.0%129thSack rate134th1.9%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate92nd65%
Texas State's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (123rd vs 10th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | USUUSU | TXSTTXST | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 24.1 | 24.2 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.0 | 76.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 49.7% | 41.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −3.0% | −10.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 51.8% | 36.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 23% | 40% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 25:47 | 30:26 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.2 | Own 28.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%