Texas State vs Boise State

Texas State

3-33-3 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3

10:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31 · CW

Albertsons Stadium · Boise

WIN PROB

—

Boise State

#21 · 5-1#21 · 5-1 · 2-0 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Boise State passvs Texas State pass Dvs TXST pass DBIGGEST EDGE	23rd+0.12	123rd+0.12	28	BSU +10.0
Texas State passvs Boise State pass Dvs BSU pass D	12th+0.16	73rd+0.01	27	TXST +6.6
Boise State runvs Texas State run Dvs TXST run D	19th+0.10	47th−0.04	40	BSU +3.2
Texas State runvs Boise State run Dvs BSU run D	21st+0.09	33rd−0.06	41	TXST +1.8

BIGGEST EDGE · BSU +10.0

Boise State's passing game vs the Texas State pass defense

Boise State gains +0.24 EPA a play on the pass (23rd); Texas State allows +0.24 (123rd). About 28 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseBoise State

BSU OFF

When Boise State has the ball

DefenseTexas State

TXST DEF

+0.2119thEPA / play111th+0.14
46.4%26thSuccess rate114th45.6%
1.2882ndExplosiveness81st1.31
+0.1619thRush EPA / play47th+0.03
+0.2423rdPass EPA / dropback123rd+0.24
49.5%40thStandard downs SR111th50.1%
35.3%13thPassing downs SR114th33.3%
3.6215thLine yards36th2.82
7.6%4thHavoc rate82nd13.7%
5.1715thPoints / opportunity92nd4.30
68%50thRed zone TD rate92nd65%

Boise State's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (13th vs 114th).

OffenseTexas State

TXST OFF

When Texas State has the ball

DefenseBoise State

BSU DEF

+0.1821stEPA / play74th+0.07
46.5%24thSuccess rate53rd41.2%
1.3439thExplosiveness134th1.42
+0.1621stRush EPA / play33rd+0.01
+0.2712thPass EPA / dropback73rd+0.12
48.1%53rdStandard downs SR33rd45.2%
38.5%2ndPassing downs SR97th32.2%
3.5521stLine yards9th2.64
10.1%15thHavoc rate27th16.8%
4.6945thPoints / opportunity17th3.14
67%55thRed zone TD rate28th50%

Texas State's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (39th vs 134th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Texas State and Boise State, season to date
Metric	TXSTTXST	BSUBSU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	24.2	32.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	76.2	69.8	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	41.6%	48.3%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−10.0%	−2.9%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	36.5%	40.9%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	40%	35%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:26	36:41	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.9	Own 24.6	Own 29.8