Texas State
3-33-3 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
10:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CW
Albertsons Stadium · Boise
WIN PROB
—
Boise State
#21 · 5-1#21 · 5-1 · 2-0 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- —
- Model
- —
- Total
- —
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Boise State passvs Texas State pass Dvs TXST pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 23rd+0.12 | 123rd+0.12 | 28 | BSU +10.0 |
  Texas State passvs Boise State pass Dvs BSU pass D | 12th+0.16 | 73rd+0.01 | 27 | TXST +6.6 |
| Boise State runvs Texas State run Dvs TXST run D | 19th+0.10 | 47th−0.04 | 40 | BSU +3.2 |
| Texas State runvs Boise State run Dvs BSU run D | 21st+0.09 | 33rd−0.06 | 41 | TXST +1.8 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BSU +10.0
Boise State's passing game vs the Texas State pass defense
Boise State gains +0.24 EPA a play on the pass (23rd); Texas State allows +0.24 (123rd). About 28 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseBoise State
BSU OFFWhen Boise State has the ball
DefenseTexas State
TXST DEF- +0.2119thEPA / play111th+0.14
- 46.4%26thSuccess rate114th45.6%
- 1.2882ndExplosiveness81st1.31
- +0.1619thRush EPA / play47th+0.03
- +0.2423rdPass EPA / dropback123rd+0.24
- 49.5%40thStandard downs SR111th50.1%
- 35.3%13thPassing downs SR114th33.3%
- 3.6215thLine yards36th2.82
- 7.6%4thHavoc rate82nd13.7%
- 5.1715thPoints / opportunity92nd4.30
- +0.2123rdEarly-down EPA / play97th+0.08
- 49.4%20th3rd-down conversion81st40.0%
- 9.7%5thStuff rate10th24.3%
- 3.0%26thSack rate134th1.9%
- 68%50thRed zone TD rate92nd65%
Boise State's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (26th vs 134th).
OffenseTexas State
TXST OFFWhen Texas State has the ball
DefenseBoise State
BSU DEF- +0.1821stEPA / play74th+0.07
- 46.5%24thSuccess rate53rd41.2%
- 1.3439thExplosiveness134th1.42
- +0.1621stRush EPA / play33rd+0.01
- +0.2712thPass EPA / dropback73rd+0.12
- 48.1%53rdStandard downs SR33rd45.2%
- 38.5%2ndPassing downs SR97th32.2%
- 3.5521stLine yards9th2.64
- 10.1%15thHavoc rate27th16.8%
- 4.6945thPoints / opportunity17th3.14
- +0.304thEarly-down EPA / play118th+0.14
- 59.7%2nd3rd-down conversion4th27.6%
- 11.3%19thStuff rate4th28.0%
- 2.0%11thSack rate22nd7.6%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Texas State's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (4th vs 118th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TXSTTXST | BSUBSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 24.2 | 32.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 76.2 | 69.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 41.6% | 48.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −10.0% | −2.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 36.5% | 40.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 40% | 35% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:26 | 36:41 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.9 | Own 24.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%