Pac-12 · #21 AP · 5-1 · 2-0 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 5-1
Boise State Broncos
HC Spencer Danielson (3rd yr) · OC Nate Potter · DC Erik Chinander
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 58%
Pac-12 · #21 AP · 5-1 · 2-0 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 5-1
Boise State
Broncos · HC Spencer Danielson (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Boise State
#21 · 5-1 · 2-0 Pac-12
1 loss now · CFP 23% in sims · CCG 85% · title 50%
Latest from the beat
BOISE STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Oregonat Oregon | L27–34 | +25+25 | W | −0.08 | 38% | 47% | 51% | 64 | 29.1 | |
| 2 |   MemphisMemphis | W38–20 | −9.5−9.5 | W | +0.30 | 50% | 35% | 81% | 74 | 34.0 | |
| 3 |   South DakotaSouth Dakota | W38–24 | −28.5−28.5 | L | +0.43 | 59% | 24% | 81% | 78 | 32.3 | |
| 4 |   at Western Michiganat Western Michigan | W32–7 | −8.5−8.5 | W | +0.62 | 52% | 39% | 96% | 63 | 34.7 | |
| 5 |   Utah StateUtah State | W37–18 | −19.5−19.5 | L | +0.31 | 45% | 32% | 88% | 62 | 33.4 | |
| 6 |   at Fresno Stateat Fresno State | W38–31 | −8.5−8.5 | L | +0.04 | 47% | 49% | 74% | 78 | 34.7 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   at Washington Stateat Washington StateNEXT | SAT 6:00 USA NetworkSAT 6:00 | −14.5−14.5 | — | — | — | — | 77% | 134 | — | |
| 9 |   Texas StateTexas State | OCT 31OCT 31 | −9.4 proj−9.4 | 72% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Colorado Stateat Colorado State | NOV 7NOV 7 | −16.5 proj−16.5 | 84% | |||||||
| 11 |   Oregon StateOregon State | NOV 14NOV 14 | −4.3 proj−4.3 | 60% | |||||||
| 12 |   San Diego StateSan Diego State | NOV 21NOV 21 | −18.2 proj−18.2 | 87% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 403 OF 408 PLAYS403 OF 408 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun58% | 58% | 53% | +0.25 | 47% |
| Under center42% | 42% | 25% | +0.20 | 50% |
| No-huddle3% | 3% | 38% | −0.10 | 38% |
| Huddle97% | 97% | 41% | +0.24 | 48% |
In shotgun on 58 % of tagged snaps, passing 53 % of the time (+0.24 EPA a play; +0.20 under center). Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 6).
Next game
SAT 6:00 USA Network · GESA FIELDSAT 6:00 USA Network
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain West crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 37 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 37 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 7 games | −0.8 | — | 7 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 6 games | +0.3 | — | 6 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +1.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | −2.3 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 2 games | −1.9 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 2 games | +3.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −0.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | +1.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Boise State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Boise State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Boise StateBSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.21 | 19th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.4% | 26th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.28 | 82nd | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.16 | 18th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.24 | 22nd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 35.4% | 13th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.62 | 16th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.0% | 26th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 49% | 21st | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.17 | 13th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 68% | 49th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 33.6 | 138th | 28.0 |