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SAT 6:00 · USA NETWORK · PULLMAN
Boise State
#21 · 5-1#21 · 5-1 · 2-0 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
6:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · USA Network
Gesa Field · Pullman
WIN PROB
77%
BSU
Washington State
1-61-6 · 0-3 Pac-12 · ATS 5-2
Spread
BSU −14.5
Open −14 · −107
Total
53.5
Open 50.5 · o −110
Model line
BSU −12.2+2.3
Model total 53.8
Win probability
77%
Projected score
33.0 – 20.8
BSU – WSU
Projected plays
134
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
BSU −14.5
open −14
Model
−12.2+2.3
BSU
Total
53.5
model 53.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Washington State passvs Boise State pass Dvs BSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE
125th−0.1573rd+0.0138BSU +7.5
Boise State runvs Washington State run Dvs WSU run D
18th+0.1080th+0.0239BSU +6.5
Washington State runvs Boise State run Dvs BSU run D
106th−0.0534th−0.0629BSU +4.7
Boise State passvs Washington State pass Dvs WSU pass D
22nd+0.1255th−0.0328BSU +3.9
PaceBSU 32.8 s · WSU 28.4 s a snap · avg 131 plays134 plays vs 131 avg
——134O 0.9

BIGGEST EDGE · BSU +7.5

The Boise State pass defense vs Washington State's passing game

Washington State gains −0.03 EPA a play on the pass (125th); Boise State allows +0.12 (73rd). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseWashington State
WSU OFF

When Washington State has the ball

DefenseBoise State
BSU DEF
  • −0.07120thEPA / play74th+0.07
  • 36.0%131stSuccess rate52nd41.2%
  • 1.25106thExplosiveness134th1.42
  • +0.02106thRush EPA / play34th+0.01
  • −0.03125thPass EPA / dropback73rd+0.12
  • 43.4%125thStandard downs SR33rd45.2%
  • 25.0%137thPassing downs SR97th32.3%
  • 2.98102ndLine yards9th2.64
  • 17.5%129thHavoc rate27th16.8%
  • 4.0482ndPoints / opportunity17th3.14
  • 60%84thRed zone TD rate29th50%

Boise State's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (129th vs 27th).

OffenseBoise State
BSU OFF

When Boise State has the ball

DefenseWashington State
WSU DEF
  • +0.2119thEPA / play73rd+0.07
  • 46.4%26thSuccess rate58th41.6%
  • 1.2882ndExplosiveness104th1.33
  • +0.1618thRush EPA / play80th+0.09
  • +0.2422ndPass EPA / dropback55th+0.09
  • 49.5%40thStandard downs SR81st48.2%
  • 35.4%13thPassing downs SR21st28.8%
  • 3.6216thLine yards78th3.15
  • 7.6%4thHavoc rate117th11.9%
  • 5.1713thPoints / opportunity65th4.00
  • 68%49thRed zone TD rate55th57%

Boise State's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (4th vs 117th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Boise State and Washington State, season to date
MetricBSUBSUWSUWSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral32.828.428.9
Plays per gamePlays per game69.863.965.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral48.3%54.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−2.9%+0.4%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral40.9%50.5%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations35%19%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession36:4127:2530:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 24.6Own 24.9Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

PAC-12 AVAILABILITY · FRI 10:08 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Boise State

PAC-12 REPORT · FRI 10:08 PMNET −0.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Washington State

PAC-12 REPORT · FRI 10:08 PMNET −0.7% TO PLAYIMPACT

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

  • WED 8:09PTotal 51.5 → 52.5
  • FRI 2:30PSpread −17 → −13 · 75% tickets BSUSpread −17 → −13 · 75% on BSURLM
  • FRI 6:57PSpread −13 → −14
  • SAT 3:15ATotal 52.5 → 53.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread BSUSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM
−14−14.5−12.2
Total
50.553.553.8
Moneyline BSU
−662−620−336

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

BSU −14.5 · 75% / 86%WSU +14.5 · 25% / 14%
Over · 90% / 99%Under · 10% / 1%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 11-pt gap on BSU suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

USA Network
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny
55°
mph SE
5
Precip
0%
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestBSU 14d · WSU 7dBSU OFF BYE