- Spread
- BSU −14.5
- Open −14 · −107
- Total
- 53.5
- Open 50.5 · o −110
- Model line
- BSU −12.2+2.3
- Model total 53.8
- Win probability
- 77%
- Projected score
- 33.0 – 20.8
- BSU – WSU
- Projected plays
- 134
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BSU −14.5
- open −14
- Model
- −12.2+2.3
- BSU
- Total
- 53.5
- model 53.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Washington State passvs Boise State pass Dvs BSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 125th−0.15 | 73rd+0.01 | 38 | BSU +7.5 |
  Boise State runvs Washington State run Dvs WSU run D | 19th+0.10 | 80th+0.02 | 39 | BSU +6.5 |
| Washington State runvs Boise State run Dvs BSU run D | 106th−0.05 | 33rd−0.06 | 29 | BSU +4.7 |
| Boise State passvs Washington State pass Dvs WSU pass D | 23rd+0.12 | 55th−0.03 | 28 | BSU +3.9 |
PaceBSU 32.8 s · WSU 28.4 s a snap · avg 131 plays134 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 134 | O 0.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BSU +7.5
The Boise State pass defense vs Washington State's passing game
Washington State gains −0.03 EPA a play on the pass (125th); Boise State allows +0.12 (73rd). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Washington State has the ball
- −0.07120thEPA / play74th+0.07
- 36.0%131stSuccess rate53rd41.2%
- 1.25107thExplosiveness134th1.42
- +0.02106thRush EPA / play33rd+0.01
- −0.03125thPass EPA / dropback73rd+0.12
- 43.4%125thStandard downs SR33rd45.2%
- 25.0%138thPassing downs SR97th32.2%
- 2.98103rdLine yards9th2.64
- 17.5%129thHavoc rate27th16.8%
- 4.0482ndPoints / opportunity17th3.14
- −0.06119thEarly-down EPA / play118th+0.14
- 29.7%132nd3rd-down conversion4th27.6%
- 21.0%124thStuff rate4th28.0%
- 8.1%121stSack rate22nd7.6%
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Boise State's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (132nd vs 4th).
When Boise State has the ball
- +0.2119thEPA / play73rd+0.07
- 46.4%26thSuccess rate60th41.6%
- 1.2882ndExplosiveness103rd1.33
- +0.1619thRush EPA / play80th+0.09
- +0.2423rdPass EPA / dropback55th+0.09
- 49.5%40thStandard downs SR82nd48.2%
- 35.3%13thPassing downs SR21st28.8%
- 3.6215thLine yards78th3.15
- 7.6%4thHavoc rate117th11.9%
- 5.1715thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
- +0.2123rdEarly-down EPA / play103rd+0.09
- 49.4%20th3rd-down conversion64th38.3%
- 9.7%5thStuff rate61st17.1%
- 3.0%26thSack rate117th3.6%
- 68%50thRed zone TD rate55th57%
Boise State's offense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (4th vs 117th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BSUBSU | WSUWSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 32.8 | 28.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.8 | 63.9 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 48.3% | 54.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −2.9% | +0.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 40.9% | 50.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 35% | 19% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 36:41 | 27:25 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 24.6 | Own 24.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%