reportedMassachusetts Daily Collegian football@By Tym Brown, Assistant Sports Editor
2hUnconfirmed tip: Watson could play.
William "Pop" Watson IIICHECKING
MAC · 4-4 · 1-3 CONF · ATS 4-4 · O/U 2-6
Massachusetts Minutemen
HC Joe Harasymiak (2nd yr) · OC Max Warner · DC Jared Keyte
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 8) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 89%
Power rating−7.0108th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins6.3of 12
Fan pulse—6 of 30 scored
MAC · 4-4 · 1-3 CONF · ATS 4-4 · O/U 2-6
Massachusetts
Minutemen · HC Joe Harasymiak (2nd yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 8) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating−7.0108th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins6.3of 12
Fan pulse—6 of 30 scored
Massachusetts
4-4 · 1-3 MAC
POWER RATING−7.0108th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS6.3of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→OUT
4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
FAN PULSE—6 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
MASSACHUSETTS · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedMassachusetts Daily Collegian football@By Tym Brown, Assistant Sports Editor
2hUnconfirmed tip: Griffin could play.
Joseph Griffin Jr. · WRCHECKING
reportedMassachusetts Daily Collegian football@By Kate Endres, Assistant Sports Editor
2hUnconfirmed tip: Watson could play.
William Watson III · QBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Rutgersat Rutgers | W37–21 | +29.5+29.5 | W | +0.55 | 53% | 36% | 84% | 62 | 31.2 | |
| 2 |  Sacred HeartSacred Heart | W37–10 | −23.5−23.5 | W | +0.73 | 50% | 30% | 96% | 40 | 30.0 | |
| 3 |  StonehillStonehill | W36–14 | −31−31 | L | +0.53 | 35% | 17% | 91% | 60 | 33.2 | |
| 4 |   at Sacramento Stateat Sacramento State | W35–6 | −6−6 | W | +0.57 | 42% | 49% | 96% | 53 | 32.2 | |
| 5 |   Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan | L14–38 | −6−6 | L | −0.49 | 44% | 57% | 3% | 52 | 28.8 | |
| 6 |   Miami (OH)Miami (OH) | L19–20 | +6+6 | W | +0.01 | 37% | 34% | 50% | 65 | 29.9 | |
| 7 |   at Buffaloat Buffalo | L18–25 | +6.5+6.5 | L | +0.12 | 42% | 38% | 36% | 71 | 27.6 | |
| 8 |   at UConnat UConn | L16–35 | +12.5+12.5 | L | — | — | — | 12% | — | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   Ball StateBall StateNEXT | TBATBA | −8 proj−8 | — | — | — | — | 69% | — | — | |
| 11 |   at Toledoat Toledo | NOV 11NOV 11 | +12 proj+12 | 23% | |||||||
| 12 |   AkronAkron | NOV 18NOV 18 | −11.4 proj−11.4 | 75% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Bowling Greenat Bowling Green | NOV 28NOV 28 | −2.9 proj−2.9 | 57% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st40%n 50%n 341%n 16242%n 12
2nd65%n 2654%n 2840%n 6516%n 19
3rd52%n 2353%n 1719%n 317%n 14
4th71%n 7100%n 10%n 10%n 2
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 416 OF 416 PLAYS416 OF 416 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun89% | 89% | 51% | +0.01 | 40% |
| Under center11% | 11% | 26% | +0.25 | 49% |
| No-huddle32% | 32% | 52% | +0.08 | 40% |
| Huddle68% | 68% | 47% | +0.02 | 41% |
StartersSTARTERS
114 of 8 games124 of 8BASE D4-2-58 of 8
114 of 84-2-5base D · 8 of 8
In shotgun on 89 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (+0.01 EPA a play; +0.25 under center). No-huddle on 32 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 8 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (8 of 8).
Next game
TBA · WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUMTBA
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC crews−0.5 to +0.5 · 21 games | 0.0 | −0.5 to +0.5 | 21 | NOISE |
| ACC crews−0.9 to +0.1 · 18 games | −0.4 | −0.9 to +0.1 | 18 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 4 games | +1.4 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 3 games | −0.3 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 3 games | +2.2 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | +1.1 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 2 games | −1.1 | — | 2 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTGary Patterson−2.2 / g · 3 games · noise−2.2 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTRick Warne+1.0 / g · 3 games · noise+1.0 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Massachusetts than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 8 of 9 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 8 of 9 games · + = more on Massachusetts than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #5 · SRWilliam Watson III+0.24EPA/dropback · 47thCPOE+12.9aDOT9.2Sack %3.9%RB · #23 · SOElijah Faulkner39.0%rush SR · 180thYards per carry4.4Explosive rate6.1%Rush EPA−0.11WR · #2 · SRT.Y. Harding1.99YPTPA · 83rdTarget share22.0%EPA / target+0.45aDOT13.1DL · #55 · JRZakar Morris4havoc plays · 199thTFL3Sacks0.5Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | MassachusettsMASS | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.02 | 102nd | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 94th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.27 | 89th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.07 | 70th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.06 | 95th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.4% | 58th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.33 | 51st | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.9% | 68th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 37% | 98th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.22 | 72nd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 63% | 73rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.8 | 105th | 28.0 |