Big Ten · #16 AP · 6-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 4-3
USC Trojans
HC Lincoln Riley (5th yr) · OC Luke Huard · DC Gary Patterson
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 99%
Big Ten · #16 AP · 6-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 4-3
USC
Trojans · HC Lincoln Riley (5th yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 7) · base D 4-2-5
USC
#16 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten
1 loss now · CFP 8% in sims · CCG 7% · title 2%
Latest from the beat
USC · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   San José StateSan José State | W42–26 | −37.5−37.5 | L | +0.65 | 70% | 31% | 88% | 75 | 31.4 | |
| 1 |   Fresno StateFresno State | W39–0 | −22−22 | W | +0.98 | 59% | 27% | 99% | 67 | 36.7 | |
| 2 |   LouisianaLouisiana | W49–30 | −31−31 | L | +0.21 | 54% | 31% | 83% | 70 | 30.4 | |
| 3 |   at Rutgersat Rutgers | W42–35 | −21−21 | L | +0.09 | 52% | 53% | 60% | 63 | 25.6 | |
| 4 |   OregonOregon | L27–41 | +3.5+3.5 | L | −0.24 | 43% | 45% | 21% | 74 | 24.6 | |
| 5 |   WashingtonWashington | W25–21 | −8.5−8.5 | L | +0.07 | 43% | 40% | 73% | 68 | 30.6 | |
| 6 |   at Penn Stateat Penn State | W31–23 | −1.5−1.5 | W | +0.31 | 51% | 38% | 71% | 61 | — | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   at Wisconsinat WisconsinNEXT | SAT 7:30 NBCSAT 7:30 | −3−3 | — | — | — | — | 54% | 127 | — | |
| 9 |   Ohio StateOhio State | OCT 31OCT 31 | +10.2 proj+10.2 | 27% | |||||||
| 10 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 11 |   at Indianaat Indiana | NOV 14NOV 14 | +9.9 proj+9.9 | 27% | |||||||
| 12 |   MarylandMaryland | NOV 21NOV 21 | −16.3 proj−16.3 | 84% | |||||||
| 13 |   at UCLAat UCLA | NOV 28NOV 28 | +4.2 proj+4.2 | 40% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 423 OF 429 PLAYS423 OF 429 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun99% | 99% | 52% | +0.29 | 52% |
| Under center1% | 1% | 0% | −0.31 | 60% |
| No-huddle83% | 83% | 53% | +0.28 | 51% |
| Huddle17% | 17% | 45% | +0.30 | 57% |
In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 52 % of the time (+0.29 EPA a play; −0.31 under center). No-huddle on 83 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (7 of 7).
Next game
SAT 7:30 NBC · CAMP RANDALL STADIUMSAT 7:30 NBC
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 29 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 29 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 23 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 23 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 4 games | −1.2 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 2 games | −1.2 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −0.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on USC than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on USC than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | USCUSC | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.26 | 4th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 49.7% | 6th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.31 | 55th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.08 | 62nd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.41 | 1st | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 37.8% | 3rd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.42 | 35th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 2.7% | 19th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 49% | 22nd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.88 | 33rd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 68% | 54th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 28.8 | 84th | 28.0 |