DELDelaware
302-4 · 0-2 C-USAFINAL
MTSUMiddle Tennessee
333-3 · 1-1 C-USAMTSU +1.5 COVEROVER 49.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP MTSU 58%→POSTGAME WE MTSU 50%
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 8,606- Postgame WE
- 50%MTSU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.16DEL +0.15
- Success rate
- 43%DEL 42%
- Turnovers
- 1–1≈ 0.5 pts swing
- vs model
- +3proj MTSU by 3.5
- Plays · pace
- 125proj 120 · 28.8s
Win probability · full game
MTSU LOW 16% · Q4 9:57 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 6.7Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Bell 23-yd TD to Roberts(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 T.Bell pass complete short middle to #3 K.Roberts caught at MTSU27, for 23 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:57, 1ST DOWN #31 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Cupitt, LS: #49 M.Sills)Q4 9:59 · 2nd & 14 · 26–23 → 26–30 · +3.6 EPAQ4 9:59 · 26–23 → 26–30 · +3.6 EPA−.38 - 2
Williams intercepts Bell(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 T.Bell pass intercepted by #30 B.Williams at MTSU40 #30 B.Williams return 30 yards to the DELA30 (#61 S.Demboski) PENALTY MTSU Illegal Block in Back (#11 J.Johnson) 10 yards from DELA39 to DELA49Q4 1:59 · 2nd & 5 DEL 42 · −3.5 DEL EPAQ4 1:59 · 2nd & 5 DEL 42 · −3.5 DEL EPA+.28 - 3Gagliano 80-yd TD to Perdue(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #83 K.Perdue caught at MTSU31, for 80 yards to the DELA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:43, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Q3 14:50 · 1st & 10 · 12–16 → 19–16 · +6.2 EPAQ3 14:50 · 12–16 → 19–16 · +6.2 EPA+.20
- 4Gagliano 14-yd TD to Clifton(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #85 N.Clifton caught at DELA00, for 14 yards to the DELA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:06, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Q4 3:08 · 2nd & 10 · 26–30 → 33–30 · +2.8 EPAQ4 3:08 · 26–30 → 33–30 · +2.8 EPA+.20
- 5Bell 33-yd TD to Humes(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 T.Bell pass complete deep middle to #12 J.Humes caught at MTSU13, for 33 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01, 1ST DOWN #31 T.Smack kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Cupitt, LS: #49 M.Sills)Q3 5:06 · 3rd & 7 · 19–16 → 19–23 · +4.9 EPAQ3 5:06 · 19–16 → 19–23 · +4.9 EPA−.20
Player EPA
Total · game
- Roman Gagliano · QB22/32 · 291 YDS · 3 TD · 1 INT · 22 RUSH YDS+12.2
- Donovan Lewis · WR6 REC · 83 YDS+9.0
- Tyler Bell · QB22/36 · 306 YDS · 2 TD · 1 INT · 6 SACKS+8.4
- Neo Clifton · WR4 REC · 64 YDS · 2 TD+5.8
- Koraun Perdue · TE4 REC · 103 YDS · 1 TD+5.7
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | DEL | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 391 | 396 |
| Plays | 67 | 58 |
| Yards / play | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| EPA / play | +0.15 | +0.16 |
| Success rate | 42% | 43% |
| Explosive plays | 10 | 8 |
| Havoc rate | 14% | 13% |
| 3rd down | 5–12 | 2–9 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.73 | 3.44 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 32:15 | 27:45 |
| Postgame WE | 50% | 50% |