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FINAL · CBSSN · PITBULL STADIUM
MTSUMiddle Tennessee
264-3 · 2-1 C-USA
26
FINAL
FIUFlorida International
233-4 · 1-2 C-USA
23
MTSU +10.5 COVEROVER 46.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP MTSU 26%→POSTGAME WE MTSU 63%
Pitbull Stadium · 8,230
Postgame WE
63%MTSU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.15FIU 0.00
Success rate
47%FIU 44%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 3.6 pts swing
vs model
−3proj FIU by 10.6
Plays · pace
121proj 128 · 29.8s

Win probability · full game

MTSU LOW 12% · Q1 9:45 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.5

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Middle Tennessee
    Brown 54-yd TD run
    (02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 54 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:06, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)
    Q3 2:11 · 2nd & 14 · 16–16 → 23–16 · +5.5 EPA
    Q3 2:11 · 16–16 → 23–16 · +5.5 EPA
    +.23
  2. 2Middle Tennessee
    Kohl incomplete to Verdugo, broken up by Butts, turnover on downs
    (11:40) Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Verdugo thrown to MTS40 broken up by #93 A.Butts, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
    Q3 11:40 · 4th & 6 MTSU 43 · turnover on downs · −2.1 FIU EPA
    Q3 11:40 · 4th & 6 MTSU 43 · −2.1 FIU EPA
    +.19
  3. 3Middle Tennessee
    Gagliano 25-yd pass to Lacy
    (01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at FIU20, for 25 yards to the FIU15 (#4 W.Miller), 1ST DOWN
    Q4 1:38 · 4th & 10 FIU 40 · +3.7 EPA
    Q4 1:38 · 4th & 10 FIU 40 · +3.7 EPA
    +.16
  4. 4Florida International
    Kohl 21-yd TD to Joseph
    (06:12) No Huddle #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #22 S.Joseph caught at MTS04, for 21 yards to the MTS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:06, 1ST DOWN #48 R.Czeremcha kick attempt good (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood)
    Q4 6:12 · 1st & 10 · 26–16 → 26–23 · +2.6 EPA
    Q4 6:12 · 26–16 → 26–23 · +2.6 EPA
    −.13
  5. 5Middle Tennessee
    Taylor blocks Czeremcha 46-yd FG
    (00:00) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD blocked by #13 A.Taylor (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 00:00, out of bounds at MTS20
    Q2 0:00 · 1st & 10 MTSU 29 · −1.4 FIU EPA
    Q2 0:00 · 1st & 10 MTSU 29 · −1.4 FIU EPA
    +.11

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 121 plays