Skip to content
Slate
SAT 5:00 · ESPN+ · RUSTON
Old Dominion
2-52-5 · 1-3 Sun Belt · ATS 1-6
5:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+
Joe Aillet Stadium · Ruston
WIN PROB
74%
LT
Louisiana Tech
4-24-2 · 2-0 Sun Belt · ATS 5-1
Spread
LT −13.5
Open −9 · −110
Total
45
Open 45.5 · o −110
Model line
LT −10.7+2.8
Model total 43.1
Win probability
74%
Projected score
16.2 – 26.9
ODU – LT
Projected plays
126
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
LT −13.5
open −9
Model
−10.7+2.8
LT
Total
45
model 43.1

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Old Dominion passvs Louisiana Tech pass Dvs LT pass DBIGGEST EDGE
133rd−0.1943rd−0.0527LT +9.4
Old Dominion runvs Louisiana Tech run Dvs LT run D
133rd−0.1453rd−0.0336LT +8.5
Louisiana Tech passvs Old Dominion pass Dvs ODU pass D
75th−0.0247th−0.0432ODU +2.9
PaceODU 26.8 s · LT 25.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays126 plays vs 131 avg
——126U 2.0
Louisiana Tech runvs Old Dominion run Dvs ODU run D
41st+0.0538th−0.0531ODU +0.4

BIGGEST EDGE · LT +9.4

The Louisiana Tech pass defense vs Old Dominion's passing game

Old Dominion gains −0.07 EPA a play on the pass (133rd); Louisiana Tech allows +0.06 (43rd). About 27 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseLouisiana Tech
LT OFF

When Louisiana Tech has the ball

DefenseOld Dominion
ODU DEF
  • +0.0666thEPA / play31st−0.01
  • 40.3%90thSuccess rate34th39.6%
  • 1.3722ndExplosiveness47th1.28
  • +0.1241stRush EPA / play38th+0.02
  • +0.0975thPass EPA / dropback47th+0.07
  • 44.7%111thStandard downs SR37th45.5%
  • 32.0%44thPassing downs SR36th29.4%
  • 2.82125thLine yards51st2.95
  • 15.9%117thHavoc rate66th14.5%
  • 3.8895thPoints / opportunity61st3.95
  • 62%78thRed zone TD rate11th45%

Old Dominion's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (111th vs 37th).

OffenseOld Dominion
ODU OFF

When Old Dominion has the ball

DefenseLouisiana Tech
LT DEF
  • −0.18137thEPA / play33rd−0.01
  • 32.6%138thSuccess rate25th38.6%
  • 1.3533rdExplosiveness124th1.38
  • −0.07133rdRush EPA / play53rd+0.04
  • −0.07133rdPass EPA / dropback43rd+0.06
  • 36.0%138thStandard downs SR27th44.1%
  • 30.0%88thPassing downs SR54th30.2%
  • 2.64131stLine yards15th2.71
  • 23.1%138thHavoc rate9th18.8%
  • 3.11128thPoints / opportunity87th4.19
  • 50%119thRed zone TD rate24th47%

Louisiana Tech's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (138th vs 9th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech, season to date
MetricODUODULTLTFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral26.825.528.9
Plays per gamePlays per game61.464.265.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral37.4%55.9%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−14.5%+7.6%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral35.6%54.9%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations14%28%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession26:3728:5030:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 27.7Own 33.5Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

SUN BELT AVAILABILITY · WED 8:06 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Old Dominion

SUN BELT REPORT · WED 8:06 PMNET −3.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Louisiana Tech

SUN BELT REPORT · WED 8:06 PMNET −1.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

  • MON 12:00PSpread −10.5 → −12.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
  • MON 12:14PSpread −10.5 → −12
  • THU 9:59ASpread −12 → −13
  • FRI 9:00ASpread −8.5 → −13.5 · 56% tickets ODUSpread −8.5 → −13.5 · 56% on ODURLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread LTSTEAM · 5 BOOKSRLM
−9−13.5−10.7
Total
45.545.043.1
Moneyline LT
−364−550−286

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

ODU +13.5 · 56% / 10%LT −13.5 · 44% / 90%
Over · 100% / 100%Under · 0% / 0%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 46-pt gap on LT suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN+
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny
84°
mph E
5
Precip
0%
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestODU 9d · LT 7d