Texas A&M vs Alabama

Texas A&M

4-34-3 · 1-3 SEC · ATS 3-4

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ABC

Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa

WIN PROB

81%

ALA

Alabama

#13 · 5-2#13 · 5-2 · 3-2 SEC · ATS 4-3

Spread: ALA −13.5; Open −15.5 · −110
Total: 50.5; Open 51.5 · o −110
Model line: ALA −14.7+1.2; Model total 51.5
Win probability: 81%
Projected score: 18.4 – 33.1; TAMU – ALA
Projected plays: 132; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: ALA −13.5; open −15.5
Model: −14.7+1.2; ALA
Total: 50.5; model 51.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Texas A&M passvs Alabama pass Dvs ALA pass DBIGGEST EDGE	112th−0.10	41st−0.06	34	ALA +7.4
Texas A&M runvs Alabama run Dvs ALA run D	79th−0.01	8th−0.11	32	ALA +5.9
Alabama passvs Texas A&M pass Dvs TAMU pass D	13th+0.15	39th−0.06	34	ALA +4.6
Alabama runvs Texas A&M run Dvs TAMU run D	6th+0.11	57th−0.02	32	ALA +4.3
PaceTAMU 31.8 s · ALA 29.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	132	O 0.1

BIGGEST EDGE · ALA +7.4

The Alabama pass defense vs Texas A&M's passing game

Texas A&M gains +0.02 EPA a play on the pass (112th); Alabama allows +0.06 (41st). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseAlabama

ALA OFF

When Alabama has the ball

DefenseTexas A&M

TAMU DEF

+0.2310thEPA / play36th0.00
46.7%19thSuccess rate37th40.2%
1.3814thExplosiveness111th1.35
+0.186thRush EPA / play57th+0.05
+0.2713thPass EPA / dropback39th+0.05
52.0%16thStandard downs SR38th45.5%
31.2%65thPassing downs SR33rd29.4%
3.4139thLine yards55th2.99
17.5%128thHavoc rate103rd12.9%
5.0520thPoints / opportunity65th4.00
84%7thRed zone TD rate95th67%

Alabama's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (14th vs 111th).

OffenseTexas A&M

TAMU OFF

When Texas A&M has the ball

DefenseAlabama

ALA DEF

+0.0191stEPA / play14th−0.08
41.6%72ndSuccess rate11th37.0%
1.23115thExplosiveness116th1.36
+0.0679thRush EPA / play8th−0.04
+0.02112thPass EPA / dropback41st+0.06
46.9%70thStandard downs SR14th43.0%
30.5%82ndPassing downs SR28th29.2%
3.1975thLine yards11th2.65
14.6%88thHavoc rate33rd16.0%
4.7743rdPoints / opportunity117th4.71
72%31stRed zone TD rate104th68%

Alabama's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: EPA / play (91st vs 14th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Texas A&M and Alabama, season to date
Metric	TAMUTAMU	ALAALA	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.8	29.9	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	69.0	62.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	46.2%	53.0%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−3.4%	+3.0%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	46.4%	46.8%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	35%	23%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	43:03	31:18	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 33.5	Own 32.9	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Texas A&M

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −3.2% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Blake Ivy · OLBlake IvyOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Kelshaun Johnson · WRKelshaun JohnsonWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
REPORTEDOUT
· perperTravis L. Brown· 1d
Out
Terry Bussey · WRTerry BusseyWR · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−1.9
Questionable
Anto Saka · EDGEAnto SakaEDGE · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
DJ Hicks · DTDJ HicksDT · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Daymion Sanford · LBDaymion SanfordLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Mario Craver · WRMario CraverWR · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.2
REPORTEDQUESTIONABLE
· perperTravis L. Brown· 2d
Probable
Trovon Baugh · OLTrovon BaughOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Available
Aaron Gregory · WRAaron GregoryWR · FR—
——
OFFICIALAVAILABLE
· perperTexas A&M Football· 7d

Alabama

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −1.9% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Cayden Jones · LBCayden JonesLB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Jeremiah Beaman · DLJeremiah BeamanDL · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Nick Sherman · DBNick ShermanDB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Desmond Umeozulu · LBDesmond UmeozuluLB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ryan Coleman-Williams · WRRyan Coleman-WilliamsWR · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
REPORTEDOUT
· perperColin Gay· 2d
Out
Terrance Green · DLTerrance GreenDL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
REPORTEDOUT
· perperColin Gay· 2d
Doubtful
EJ Crowell · RBEJ CrowellRB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.4
REPORTEDQUESTIONABLE
· perperColin Gay· 2d
Doubtful
Racin Delgatty · OLRacin DelgattyOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.3
REPORTEDQUESTIONABLE
· perperColin Gay· 2d
Doubtful
Zabien Brown · DBZabien BrownDB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.2
REPORTEDQUESTIONABLE
· perperColin Gay· 2d
Available
Fatutoa Henry · DLFatutoa HenryDL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

SUN 7:07PTotal 51.5 → 50.5
TUE 9:39PSpread −14.5 → −13.5
WED 11:45ATotal 54.5 → 50.5 · 85% tickets overTotal 54.5 → 50.5 · 85% on overRLM
THU 5:11PTotal 49.5 → 50.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread ALA	−15.5	−13.5	−14.7
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKSRLM	51.5	50.5	51.5
Moneyline ALA	−699	−595	−436

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

TAMU +13.5 · 27% / 12%ALA −13.5 · 73% / 88%

Over · 85% / 76%Under · 15% / 24%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 15-pt gap on ALA suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ABC

Play-by-playJoe Tessitore

AnalystJesse Palmer

SidelineKris Budden

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 75°
mph ENE · G12: 5
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestTAMU 7d · ALA 7d

Injury report

Texas A&M

Alabama

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew