Texas A&M
4-34-3 · 1-3 SEC · ATS 3-4
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ABC
Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa
WIN PROB
81%
ALA
Alabama
#13 · 5-2#13 · 5-2 · 3-2 SEC · ATS 4-3
- Spread
- ALA −13.5
- Open −15.5 · −110
- Total
- 50.5
- Open 51.5 · o −110
- Model line
- ALA −14.7+1.2
- Model total 51.5
- Win probability
- 81%
- Projected score
- 18.4 – 33.1
- TAMU – ALA
- Projected plays
- 132
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ALA −13.5
- open −15.5
- Model
- −14.7+1.2
- ALA
- Total
- 50.5
- model 51.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Texas A&M passvs Alabama pass Dvs ALA pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 111th−0.10 | 41st−0.06 | 34 | ALA +7.4 |
| Texas A&M runvs Alabama run Dvs ALA run D | 76th−0.01 | 8th−0.11 | 32 | ALA +5.9 |
  Alabama passvs Texas A&M pass Dvs TAMU pass D | 13th+0.15 | 39th−0.06 | 34 | ALA +4.6 |
| Alabama runvs Texas A&M run Dvs TAMU run D | 6th+0.11 | 58th−0.02 | 32 | ALA +4.2 |
PaceTAMU 31.8 s · ALA 29.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 132 | O 0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ALA +7.4
The Alabama pass defense vs Texas A&M's passing game
Texas A&M gains +0.02 EPA a play on the pass (111th); Alabama allows +0.06 (41st). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseAlabama
ALA OFFWhen Alabama has the ball
DefenseTexas A&M
TAMU DEF- +0.2311thEPA / play36th0.00
- 46.7%19thSuccess rate37th40.2%
- 1.3813thExplosiveness109th1.35
- +0.186thRush EPA / play58th+0.05
- +0.2713thPass EPA / dropback39th+0.05
- 52.0%16thStandard downs SR38th45.5%
- 31.1%63rdPassing downs SR34th29.4%
- 3.4139thLine yards55th2.99
- 17.5%128thHavoc rate103rd12.9%
- 5.0519thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
- +0.1927thEarly-down EPA / play37th−0.03
- 38.9%81st3rd-down conversion32nd33.9%
- 15.2%64thStuff rate95th14.9%
- 9.1%130thSack rate126th2.9%
- 84%7thRed zone TD rate94th67%
Alabama's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (13th vs 109th).
OffenseTexas A&M
TAMU OFFWhen Texas A&M has the ball
DefenseAlabama
ALA DEF- +0.0190thEPA / play14th−0.08
- 41.6%72ndSuccess rate11th37.0%
- 1.23115thExplosiveness113th1.36
- +0.0676thRush EPA / play8th−0.04
- +0.02111thPass EPA / dropback41st+0.06
- 46.9%72ndStandard downs SR14th43.0%
- 30.5%81stPassing downs SR28th29.1%
- 3.1975thLine yards11th2.65
- 14.6%88thHavoc rate33rd16.0%
- 4.7742ndPoints / opportunity118th4.71
- 0.00108thEarly-down EPA / play31st−0.06
- 43.5%48th3rd-down conversion57th36.6%
- 14.7%55thStuff rate27th20.2%
- 5.5%84thSack rate29th7.3%
- 72%31stRed zone TD rate104th68%
Alabama's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (108th vs 31st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TAMUTAMU | ALAALA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.8 | 29.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.0 | 62.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 46.2% | 53.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −3.4% | +3.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 46.4% | 46.8% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 35% | 23% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 43:03 | 31:18 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.5 | Own 32.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%