reportedCrimson White sports desk@Fisher Isbell, Sports Editor
1dUnconfirmed tip on Craver’s status against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Mario CraverCHECKING
SEC · #13 AP · 5-2 · 3-2 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 5-2
Alabama Crimson Tide
HC Kalen DeBoer (3rd yr) · OC Ryan Grubb · DC Kane Wommack
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 7) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 89%
Power rating17.94th
CFP odds53%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→BUBBLE
Proj. wins8.9of 12
Fan pulse−12▲9
SEC · #13 AP · 5-2 · 3-2 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 5-2
Alabama
Crimson Tide · HC Kalen DeBoer (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 7) · base D 3-3-5
Power rating17.94th
CFP odds · outlook53%—BUBBLE→BUBBLE
Proj. wins8.9of 12
Fan pulse−12▲9
Alabama
#13 · 5-2 · 3-2 SEC
POWER RATING17.94th in FBS
CFP ODDS53%no change
PROJ. WINS8.9of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→BUBBLE
2 losses now · CFP 53% in sims · CCG 22% · title 13%
FAN PULSE−12▲9
61 pts below the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
ALABAMA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedCrimson White sports desk@Fisher Isbell, Sports Editor
1dUnconfirmed tip: Morrow could play against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Jamarion MorrowCHECKING
reportedCrimson White sports desk@Christa Pickens, Contributing Writer
1dUnconfirmed tip on Russell’s status against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Keelon Russell · QBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   East CarolinaEast Carolina | W48–10 | −28.5−28.5 | W | +0.65 | 59% | 29% | 98% | 80 | 30.5 | |
| 2 |   at Kentuckyat Kentucky | W45–17 | −9−9 | W | +0.48 | 47% | 31% | 96% | 63 | 31.0 | |
| 3 |   Florida StateFlorida State | W50–36 | −18.5−18.5 | L | +0.36 | 50% | 41% | 81% | 64 | 31.0 | |
| 4 |   South CarolinaSouth Carolina | W49–18 | −12.5−12.5 | W | +0.59 | 49% | 35% | 97% | 56 | 34.0 | |
| 5 |   at Mississippi Stateat Mississippi State | W56–23 | −5.5−5.5 | W | +0.66 | 57% | 36% | 94% | 59 | 37.4 | |
| 6 |   GeorgiaGeorgia | L17–20 | −2.5−2.5 | L | −0.14 | 45% | 43% | 33% | 60 | 29.1 | |
| 7 |   at Tennesseeat Tennessee | L10–26 | −7.5−7.5 | L | −0.31 | 30% | 47% | 14% | 57 | 28.8 | |
| 8 |   Texas A&MTexas A&MNEXT | SAT 3:30 ABCSAT 3:30 | −13.5−13.5 | — | — | — | — | 81% | 132 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   at LSUat LSU | NOV 7NOV 7 | +1.4 proj+1.4 | 47% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Vanderbiltat Vanderbilt | NOV 14NOV 14 | −17.2 proj−17.2 | 85% | |||||||
| 12 |   ChattanoogaChattanooga | NOV 21NOV 21 | −42 proj−42 | 99% | |||||||
| 13 |   AuburnAuburn | NOV 28NOV 28 | −14.2 proj−14.2 | 80% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st75%n 4100%n 252%n 16138%n 8
2nd52%n 2158%n 3335%n 4328%n 25
3rd50%n 2038%n 2133%n 1527%n 15
4th75%n 80%n 1—n 0—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 334 OF 382 PLAYS334 OF 382 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun89% | 89% | 58% | +0.20 | 45% |
| Under center11% | 11% | 16% | +0.34 | 58% |
| No-huddle13% | 13% | 66% | +0.29 | 52% |
| Huddle87% | 87% | 51% | +0.21 | 45% |
StartersSTARTERS
113 of 7 games123 of 7BASE D3-3-56 of 7
113 of 73-3-5base D · 6 of 7
In shotgun on 89 % of tagged snaps, passing 58 % of the time (+0.20 EPA a play; +0.34 under center). No-huddle on 13 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 7 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (6 of 7).
Next game
SAT 3:30 ABC · BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMSAT 3:30 ABC
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR · JR
WR · top injuryNEXT UPM. PritchettΔ −0.08 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−0.5IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.5 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.3 to +0.5 · 51 games | +0.1 | −0.3 to +0.5 | 51 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 4 games | −1.2 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 3 games | −1.9 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 2 games | +0.4 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +1.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −0.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTLee Hedrick−1.5 / g · 4 games · noise−1.5 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTKen Williamson+2.6 / g · 8 games · noise+2.6 / g · 8 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Alabama than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Alabama than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #12 · SOKeelon Russell+0.33EPA/dropback · 30thCPOE+8.3aDOT9.7Sack %8.6%RB · #4 · JRDaniel Hill54.2%rush SR · 13thYards per carry4.8Explosive rate6.8%Rush EPA+0.10WR · #7 · RS-JRRico Scott1.32YPTPA · 215thTarget share22.3%EPA / target+0.19aDOT12.4DL · #1 · SRDevan Thompkins4havoc plays · 199thTFL4Sacks4Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | AlabamaALA | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.23 | 10th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.7% | 19th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.38 | 14th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.18 | 6th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.27 | 13th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.2% | 65th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.41 | 39th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 9.1% | 131st | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39% | 81st | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.05 | 20th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 84% | 7th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 31.3 | 125th | 28.0 |