reportedTravis L. Brown@Travis_L_Brown
1dJohnson won’t play against Alabama on Saturday, per Travis L. Brown.
Kelshaun Johnson · WRCLAIM: OUT✓ MATCHES OUT
SEC · 4-3 · 1-3 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 2-5
Texas A&M Aggies
HC Mike Elko (3rd yr) · OC Holmon Wiggins · DC Lyle Hemphill
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (4 OF 5) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 99%
Power rating6.136th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.0of 12
Fan pulse—2 of 30 scored
SEC · 4-3 · 1-3 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 2-5
Texas A&M
Aggies · HC Mike Elko (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (4 of 5) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating6.136th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.0of 12
Fan pulse—2 of 30 scored
Texas A&M
4-3 · 1-3 SEC
POWER RATING6.136th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS6.0of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
FAN PULSE—2 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
TEXAS A&M · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedTravis L. Brown@Travis_L_Brown
2dCraver is questionable against Alabama on Saturday, per Travis L. Brown.
Mario Craver · WRCLAIM: QUESTIONABLEREPORT: PROBABLE
reportedThe Battalion football@Dylan Fonville, Sports Writer
2dUnconfirmed tip on Bethel-Roman’s status against Alabama on Saturday.
Ashton Bethel-Roman · WRUNCONFIRMED
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Missouri StateMissouri State | W50–0 | −39.5−39.5 | W | +0.94 | 53% | 17% | 100% | 87 | 32.3 | |
| 2 |   Arizona StateArizona State | W48–20 | −15.5−15.5 | W | +0.14 | 38% | 36% | 91% | 58 | 31.3 | |
| 3 |   KentuckyKentucky | L21–31 | −16.5−16.5 | L | −0.34 | 43% | 52% | 28% | 84 | 23.1 | |
| 4 |   at LSUat LSU | L6–35 | +8.5+8.5 | L | −0.74 | 29% | 49% | 4% | 59 | 32.8 | |
| 5 |   ArkansasArkansas | W34–7 | −14−14 | W | +0.51 | 47% | 40% | 95% | 68 | 36.7 | |
| 6 |   at Missouriat Missouri | L6–27 | +4.5+4.5 | L | −0.37 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 62 | 28.7 | |
| 7 |   The CitadelThe Citadel | W41–0 | −46.5−46.5 | L | +0.95 | 68% | 30% | 100% | 65 | 25.7 | |
| 8 |   at Alabamaat AlabamaNEXT | SAT 3:30 ABCSAT 3:30 | +13.5+13.5 | — | — | — | — | 19% | 132 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   at South Carolinaat South Carolina | NOV 7NOV 7 | +0.5 proj+0.5 | 49% | |||||||
| 11 |   TennesseeTennessee | NOV 14NOV 14 | +3.6 proj+3.6 | 41% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Oklahomaat Oklahoma | NOV 21NOV 21 | +1.2 proj+1.2 | 47% | |||||||
| 13 |   TexasTexas | NOV 27NOV 27 | +3.2 proj+3.2 | 42% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st86%n 750%n 839%n 14850%n 4
2nd53%n 1751%n 3741%n 5820%n 15
3rd71%n 2842%n 1929%n 2414%n 14
4th67%n 9100%n 20%n 117%n 6
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 394 OF 397 PLAYS394 OF 397 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun99% | 99% | 51% | +0.02 | 43% |
| Under center1% | 1% | 20% | −0.77 | 20% |
| No-huddle91% | 91% | 53% | 0.00 | 42% |
| Huddle9% | 9% | 30% | +0.08 | 43% |
StartersSTARTERS
114 of 5 games101 of 5BASE D4-2-55 of 5
114 of 54-2-5base D · 5 of 5
In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (+0.02 EPA a play; −0.77 under center). No-huddle on 91 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 4 of 5 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 5).
Next game
SAT 3:30 ABC · BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMSAT 3:30 ABC
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Terry BusseyWR · JR
WR · top injuryNEXT UPA. Bethel-RomanΔ −0.27 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−1.9IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −1.9 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.4 to +0.6 · 24 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.6 | 24 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +0.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −3.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −1.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −2.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTJames Carter−1.8 / g · 3 games · noise−1.8 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMatt Loeffler+1.3 / g · 4 games · noise+1.3 / g · 4 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Texas A&M than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Texas A&M than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #10 · SRMarcel Reed−0.08EPA/dropback · 128thCPOE−5.0aDOT8.7Sack %5.3%RB · #4 · SRRueben Owens II42.1%rush SR · 149thYards per carry4.1Explosive rate5.3%Rush EPA−0.05WR · #7 · SRIsaiah Horton1.20YPTPA · 257thTarget share20.8%EPA / target+0.10aDOT13.1EDGE · #10 · SOMarco Jones4havoc plays · 199thTFL2Sacks2Forced fumbles1
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Texas A&MTAMU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.01 | 91st | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 41.6% | 72nd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.23 | 115th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.06 | 79th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.02 | 112th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 30.5% | 82nd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.19 | 75th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.5% | 84th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 44% | 49th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.77 | 43rd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 72% | 31st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.1 | 90th | 28.0 |