Tennessee vs South Carolina

Tennessee

#11 · 6-1#11 · 6-1 · 3-1 SEC · ATS 4-3

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN

Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia

WIN PROB

64%

TENN

South Carolina

3-33-3 · 1-3 SEC · ATS 2-4

Spread: SC −2.5; Open +2.5 · −110
Total: 50.5; Open 50.5 · o −110
Model line: TENN −5.9+8.4; Model total 50.0
Win probability: 64%
Projected score: 27.9 – 22.1; TENN – SC
Projected plays: 140; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: SC −2.5; open +2.5
Model: −5.9+8.4; TENN
Total: 50.5; model 50.0

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
South Carolina passvs Tennessee pass Dvs TENN pass DBIGGEST EDGE	84th−0.04	2nd−0.22	37	TENN +13.4
Tennessee runvs South Carolina run Dvs SC run D	2nd+0.14	29th−0.06	41	TENN +4.3
South Carolina runvs Tennessee run Dvs TENN run D	10th+0.11	47th−0.03	34	SC +3.7
Tennessee passvs South Carolina pass Dvs SC pass D	119th−0.13	100th+0.06	29	SC +3.2
PaceTENN 27.5 s · SC 26.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	140	O 3.1

BIGGEST EDGE · TENN +13.4

The Tennessee pass defense vs South Carolina's passing game

South Carolina gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (84th); Tennessee allows −0.10 (2nd). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSouth Carolina

SC OFF

When South Carolina has the ball

DefenseTennessee

TENN DEF

+0.1145thEPA / play6th−0.12
41.9%70thSuccess rate30th39.2%
1.3816thExplosiveness8th1.19
+0.1810thRush EPA / play47th+0.04
+0.0884thPass EPA / dropback2nd−0.10
47.8%55thStandard downs SR48th46.0%
30.0%89thPassing downs SR12th28.2%
3.4926thLine yards76th3.15
13.0%57thHavoc rate2nd21.9%
4.8538thPoints / opportunity4th2.70
70%40thRed zone TD rate46th53%

Tennessee's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (84th vs 2nd).

OffenseTennessee

TENN OFF

When Tennessee has the ball

DefenseSouth Carolina

SC DEF

+0.0859thEPA / play62nd+0.04
43.6%51stSuccess rate63rd41.9%
1.21126thExplosiveness77th1.31
+0.212ndRush EPA / play29th+0.01
−0.02119thPass EPA / dropback100th+0.17
49.8%34thStandard downs SR59th46.6%
27.8%118thPassing downs SR105th32.7%
3.6712thLine yards23rd2.75
12.8%53rdHavoc rate72nd14.3%
4.5956thPoints / opportunity111th4.67
68%49thRed zone TD rate87th64%

Tennessee's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (56th vs 111th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Tennessee and South Carolina, season to date
Metric	TENNTENN	SCSC	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	27.5	26.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	68.6	71.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	46.3%	48.5%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−2.9%	−1.5%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	43.9%	46.5%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	22%	30%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:56	32:20	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 31.1	Own 28.5	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Tennessee

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −0.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Dylan Lewis · DBDylan LewisDB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Edrees Farooq · DBEdrees FarooqDB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ethan Davis · TEEthan DavisTE · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.4
Out
Jaedon Harmon · LBJaedon HarmonLB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Joakim Dodson · WRJoakim DodsonWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Wendell Moe Jr. · OLWendell Moe Jr.OL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3

South Carolina

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −0.6% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Jayden Sellers · WRJayden SellersWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Josiah Thompson · OLJosiah ThompsonOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Kobby Sakyi-Prah · EDGEKobby Sakyi-PrahEDGE · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Quay'sheed Scott · DBQuay'sheed ScottDB · JRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Seth Smith · OLSeth SmithOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Jawarn Howell · RBJawarn HowellRB · JRReport trail: Available, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%0.0
Probable
Carter Miller · OLCarter MillerOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 4:17PSpread +2.5 → +1.5
SUN 10:00PSpread +1 → −2STEAM · 5 BOOKS
SUN 10:17PSpread +1.5 → −2.5
MON 10:00ASpread +1.5 → −2.5 · 69% tickets TENNSpread +1.5 → −2.5 · 69% on TENNRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread SCSTEAM · 5 BOOKSRLM	+2.5	−2.5	+5.9
Total	50.5	50.5	50.0
Moneyline SC	+106	−130	+177

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

TENN +2.5 · 69% / 59%SC −2.5 · 31% / 41%

Over · 85% / 91%Under · 15% / 9%

DraftKings bettors, as of 2:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 10-pt gap on SC suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN

CrewTBA

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Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 70°
mph NE · G20: 10
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestTENN 7d · SC 14dSC OFF BYE

Injury report

Tennessee

South Carolina

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew