Tennessee
#11 · 6-1#11 · 6-1 · 3-1 SEC · ATS 4-3
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN
Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia
WIN PROB
64%
TENN
South Carolina
3-33-3 · 1-3 SEC · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- SC −2.5
- Open +2.5 · −110
- Total
- 50.5
- Open 50.5 · o −110
- Model line
- TENN −5.9+8.4
- Model total 50.0
- Win probability
- 64%
- Projected score
- 27.9 – 22.1
- TENN – SC
- Projected plays
- 140
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- SC −2.5
- open +2.5
- Model
- −5.9+8.4
- TENN
- Total
- 50.5
- model 50.0
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  South Carolina passvs Tennessee pass Dvs TENN pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 83rd−0.04 | 2nd−0.21 | 37 | TENN +13.4 |
  Tennessee runvs South Carolina run Dvs SC run D | 3rd+0.14 | 29th−0.06 | 41 | TENN +4.3 |
| South Carolina runvs Tennessee run Dvs TENN run D | 10th+0.11 | 49th−0.03 | 34 | SC +3.7 |
| Tennessee passvs South Carolina pass Dvs SC pass D | 119th−0.13 | 99th+0.06 | 29 | SC +3.2 |
PaceTENN 27.5 s · SC 26.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 140 | O 3.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TENN +13.4
The Tennessee pass defense vs South Carolina's passing game
South Carolina gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (83rd); Tennessee allows −0.10 (2nd). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSouth Carolina
SC OFFWhen South Carolina has the ball
DefenseTennessee
TENN DEF- +0.1146thEPA / play6th−0.12
- 41.8%69thSuccess rate29th39.1%
- 1.3816thExplosiveness9th1.20
- +0.1810thRush EPA / play49th+0.04
- +0.0883rdPass EPA / dropback2nd−0.10
- 47.8%55thStandard downs SR47th46.0%
- 30.0%90thPassing downs SR13th28.1%
- 3.4926thLine yards76th3.15
- 13.0%56thHavoc rate2nd21.9%
- 4.8537thPoints / opportunity4th2.70
- +0.0389thEarly-down EPA / play10th−0.15
- 47.3%28th3rd-down conversion9th28.7%
- 13.6%42ndStuff rate35th19.1%
- 5.3%79thSack rate1st12.7%
- 70%39thRed zone TD rate45th53%
Tennessee's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: pass EPA (83rd vs 2nd).
OffenseTennessee
TENN OFFWhen Tennessee has the ball
DefenseSouth Carolina
SC DEF- +0.0858thEPA / play62nd+0.04
- 43.6%50thSuccess rate64th41.9%
- 1.21126thExplosiveness76th1.31
- +0.213rdRush EPA / play29th+0.01
- −0.02119thPass EPA / dropback99th+0.17
- 49.8%34thStandard downs SR58th46.6%
- 27.8%119thPassing downs SR105th32.7%
- 3.6711thLine yards23rd2.75
- 12.8%52ndHavoc rate72nd14.3%
- 4.5955thPoints / opportunity111th4.67
- +0.1160thEarly-down EPA / play93rd+0.08
- 39.3%75th3rd-down conversion52nd36.4%
- 11.2%18thStuff rate24th20.9%
- 8.2%122ndSack rate18th7.8%
- 68%50thRed zone TD rate87th64%
Tennessee's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (122nd vs 18th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TENNTENN | SCSC | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.5 | 26.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.6 | 71.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 46.3% | 48.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −2.9% | −1.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 43.9% | 46.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:56 | 32:20 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.1 | Own 28.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%