Colorado
2-42-4 · 0-3 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
7:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FS1
Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater
WIN PROB
59%
OKST
Oklahoma State
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 5-1
- Spread
- OKST −13.5
- Open −14 · −110
- Total
- 56
- Open 55.5 · o −110
- Model line
- OKST −3.9+9.6
- Model total 49.9
- Win probability
- 59%
- Projected score
- 23.0 – 26.9
- COLO – OKST
- Projected plays
- 140
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- OKST −13.5
- open −14
- Model
- −3.9+9.6
- OKST
- Total
- 56
- model 49.9
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oklahoma State passvs Colorado pass Dvs COLO pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 25th+0.12 | 67th−0.01 | 37 | OKST +6.1 |
| Oklahoma State runvs Colorado run Dvs COLO run D | 57th+0.02 | 3rd−0.14 | 33 | COLO +5.9 |
  Colorado runvs Oklahoma State run Dvs OKST run D | 120th−0.08 | 60th−0.02 | 35 | OKST +4.8 |
PaceCOLO 27.7 s · OKST 26.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 140 | O 3.2 |
| Colorado passvs Oklahoma State pass Dvs OKST pass D | 77th−0.02 | 66th−0.01 | 36 | OKST +1.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · OKST +6.1
Oklahoma State's passing game vs the Colorado pass defense
Oklahoma State gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (25th); Colorado allows +0.11 (67th). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseOklahoma State
OKST OFFWhen Oklahoma State has the ball
DefenseColorado
COLO DEF- +0.1432ndEPA / play22nd−0.05
- 48.5%12thSuccess rate17th37.7%
- 1.25109thExplosiveness95th1.32
- +0.0957thRush EPA / play3rd−0.07
- +0.2325thPass EPA / dropback67th+0.11
- 53.4%8thStandard downs SR18th43.2%
- 32.4%38thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
- 3.4631stLine yards6th2.48
- 10.8%25thHavoc rate5th20.4%
- 4.2769thPoints / opportunity30th3.46
- +0.295thEarly-down EPA / play29th−0.07
- 33.9%110th3rd-down conversion78th39.2%
- 11.8%22ndStuff rate5th27.3%
- 1.0%4thSack rate49th6.3%
- 48%128thRed zone TD rate15th46%
Colorado's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (128th vs 15th).
OffenseColorado
COLO OFFWhen Colorado has the ball
DefenseOklahoma State
OKST DEF- −0.03106thEPA / play65th+0.04
- 41.0%80thSuccess rate74th42.5%
- 1.2795thExplosiveness38th1.27
- −0.01120thRush EPA / play60th+0.05
- +0.0977thPass EPA / dropback66th+0.11
- 45.7%88thStandard downs SR90th49.1%
- 31.0%68thPassing downs SR30th29.2%
- 3.1488thLine yards66th3.11
- 14.6%90thHavoc rate107th12.5%
- 3.25124thPoints / opportunity89th4.22
- 0.00105thEarly-down EPA / play106th+0.10
- 36.8%99th3rd-down conversion61st37.5%
- 14.2%49thStuff rate63rd16.9%
- 5.0%72ndSack rate52nd6.2%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate94th67%
Oklahoma State's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (120th vs 60th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | COLOCOLO | OKSTOKST | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.7 | 26.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.2 | 70.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 39.4% | 55.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −10.4% | +10.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 38.3% | 54.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 28% | 33% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:49 | 30:16 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 25.4 | Own 28.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%