Virginia Tech vs Clemson

Virginia Tech

5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 4-3

7:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN

Memorial Stadium · Clemson

WIN PROB

55%

CLEM

Clemson

4-24-2 · 2-1 ACC · ATS 2-4

Spread: CLEM −2.5; Open −2.5 · −116
Total: 49; Open 49.5 · o −108
Model line: CLEM −2.1; Model total 50.9
Win probability: 55%
Projected score: 24.4 – 26.5; VT – CLEM
Projected plays: 140; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: CLEM −2.5; open −2.5
Model: −2.1; CLEM
Total: 49; model 50.9

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Clemson passvs Virginia Tech pass Dvs VT pass DBIGGEST EDGE	127th−0.15	90th+0.04	36	VT +5.9
Virginia Tech passvs Clemson pass Dvs CLEM pass D	29th+0.10	6th−0.18	37	CLEM +4.3
PaceVT 26.5 s · CLEM 26.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	140	O 3.1
Virginia Tech runvs Clemson run Dvs CLEM run D	48th+0.03	85th+0.03	33	VT +2.7
Clemson runvs Virginia Tech run Dvs VT run D	88th−0.03	57th−0.02	34	VT +2.4

BIGGEST EDGE · VT +5.9

The Virginia Tech pass defense vs Clemson's passing game

Clemson gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (127th); Virginia Tech allows +0.15 (90th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseClemson

CLEM OFF

When Clemson has the ball

DefenseVirginia Tech

VT DEF

−0.06117thEPA / play80th+0.08
38.3%123rdSuccess rate62nd41.6%
1.2975thExplosiveness91st1.32
+0.0488thRush EPA / play57th+0.05
−0.04127thPass EPA / dropback90th+0.15
42.1%132ndStandard downs SR83rd48.5%
30.6%78thPassing downs SR11th27.9%
2.88121stLine yards1st2.07
14.9%97thHavoc rate4th20.6%
3.78101stPoints / opportunity75th4.10
41%133rdRed zone TD rate90th65%

Virginia Tech's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (121st vs 1st).

OffenseVirginia Tech

VT OFF

When Virginia Tech has the ball

DefenseClemson

CLEM DEF

+0.1431stEPA / play24th−0.04
46.0%29thSuccess rate44th40.5%
1.3065thExplosiveness10th1.20
+0.1048thRush EPA / play85th+0.09
+0.2229thPass EPA / dropback6th−0.07
48.5%49thStandard downs SR25th43.7%
36.3%7thPassing downs SR118th33.7%
3.1685thLine yards115th3.38
11.8%35thHavoc rate19th17.3%
4.6352ndPoints / opportunity5th2.74
59%91stRed zone TD rate47th54%

Clemson's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (7th vs 118th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Virginia Tech and Clemson, season to date
Metric	VTVT	CLEMCLEM	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	26.5	26.3	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	71.6	68.3	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	57.7%	44.8%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+7.4%	−4.3%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	57.3%	43.2%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	27%	18%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	31:36	30:45	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 32.2	Own 31.4	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Virginia Tech

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.1% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Emmett Laws · DLEmmett LawsDL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
George Ballance · LBGeorge BallanceLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Justin Terry · OLJustin TerryOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
L.J. Booker · WRL.J. BookerWR · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Lucas Austin · OLLucas AustinOL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Luke Stuewe · WRLuke StueweWR · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Montavious Cunningham · OLMontavious CunninghamOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Nathaniel Wright · OLNathaniel WrightOL · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Shamarius Peterkin · WRShamarius PeterkinWR · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Thomas Williams · CBThomas WilliamsCB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Available
Cam Chadwick Jr. · CBCam Chadwick Jr.CB · JRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

Clemson

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −0.7% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Armon Mason · EDGEArmon MasonEDGE · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Corian Gipson · CBCorian GipsonCB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out for season
Polo Anderson · SPolo AndersonS · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Shavar Young Jr. · CBShavar Young Jr.CB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Chase Byrd · WRChase ByrdWR · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Cole Turner · WRCole TurnerWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
David Eziomume · RBDavid EziomumeRB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Gordon Sellars III · WRGordon Sellars IIIWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Markus Strong · DTMarkus StrongDT · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Mason Wade · OLMason WadeOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Questionable
Vic Burley · DTVic BurleyDT · SRReport trail: Available, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Available
Christopher Vizzina · QBChristopher VizzinaQB · SR—
——
REPORTEDAVAILABLE
· perperJackson Castellano· 7d

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

SUN 9:12ATotal 49.5 → 50.5
SUN 11:12ATotal 50.5 → 49.5
MON 7:00ASpread −2 → −3
FRI 4:15ASpread +1.5 → −2.5 · 41% tickets VTSpread +1.5 → −2.5 · 41% on VTRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread CLEMRLM	−2.5	−2.5	−2.1
Total	49.5	49.0	50.9
Moneyline CLEM	−128	−141	−122

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

VT +2.5 · 41% / 37%CLEM −2.5 · 59% / 63%

Over · 44% / 19%Under · 56% / 81%

DraftKings bettors, as of 6:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 25-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN

Play-by-playRoy Philpott

AnalystBrock Osweiler

SidelineSherree Burruss

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Clear: 62°
mph ENE · G15: 7
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestVT 7d · CLEM 7d

Injury report

Virginia Tech

Clemson

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew