Virginia Tech
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 4-3
7:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN
Memorial Stadium · Clemson
WIN PROB
55%
CLEM
Clemson
4-24-2 · 2-1 ACC · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- CLEM −2.5
- Open −2.5 · −117
- Total
- 49
- Open 49.5 · o −110
- Model line
- CLEM −2.1
- Model total 50.9
- Win probability
- 55%
- Projected score
- 24.4 – 26.5
- VT – CLEM
- Projected plays
- 140
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- CLEM −2.5
- open −2.5
- Model
- −2.1
- CLEM
- Total
- 49
- model 50.9
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Clemson passvs Virginia Tech pass Dvs VT pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 127th−0.15 | 90th+0.04 | 36 | VT +5.9 |
  Virginia Tech passvs Clemson pass Dvs CLEM pass D | 29th+0.10 | 6th−0.18 | 37 | CLEM +4.3 |
PaceVT 26.5 s · CLEM 26.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays140 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 140 | O 3.1 |
| Virginia Tech runvs Clemson run Dvs CLEM run D | 48th+0.03 | 85th+0.03 | 33 | VT +2.7 |
| Clemson runvs Virginia Tech run Dvs VT run D | 88th−0.03 | 57th−0.02 | 34 | VT +2.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · VT +5.9
The Virginia Tech pass defense vs Clemson's passing game
Clemson gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (127th); Virginia Tech allows +0.15 (90th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseClemson
CLEM OFFWhen Clemson has the ball
DefenseVirginia Tech
VT DEF- −0.06117thEPA / play80th+0.08
- 38.3%123rdSuccess rate62nd41.6%
- 1.2975thExplosiveness91st1.32
- +0.0488thRush EPA / play57th+0.05
- −0.04127thPass EPA / dropback90th+0.15
- 42.1%132ndStandard downs SR83rd48.5%
- 30.6%78thPassing downs SR11th27.9%
- 2.88121stLine yards1st2.07
- 14.9%97thHavoc rate4th20.6%
- 3.78101stPoints / opportunity75th4.10
- −0.07124thEarly-down EPA / play74th+0.05
- 31.5%127th3rd-down conversion39th34.7%
- 19.3%114thStuff rate3rd28.6%
- 8.0%118thSack rate24th7.5%
- 41%133rdRed zone TD rate90th65%
Virginia Tech's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: line yards (121st vs 1st).
OffenseVirginia Tech
VT OFFWhen Virginia Tech has the ball
DefenseClemson
CLEM DEF- +0.1431stEPA / play24th−0.04
- 46.0%29thSuccess rate44th40.5%
- 1.3065thExplosiveness10th1.20
- +0.1048thRush EPA / play85th+0.09
- +0.2229thPass EPA / dropback6th−0.07
- 48.5%49thStandard downs SR25th43.7%
- 36.3%7thPassing downs SR118th33.7%
- 3.1685thLine yards115th3.38
- 11.8%35thHavoc rate19th17.3%
- 4.6352ndPoints / opportunity5th2.74
- +0.1832ndEarly-down EPA / play99th+0.08
- 41.7%63rd3rd-down conversion17th30.8%
- 17.7%96thStuff rate89th15.1%
- 6.2%96thSack rate48th6.3%
- 59%91stRed zone TD rate47th54%
Clemson's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (7th vs 118th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | VTVT | CLEMCLEM | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.5 | 26.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 71.6 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 57.7% | 44.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +7.4% | −4.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 57.3% | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 27% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:36 | 30:45 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.2 | Own 31.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%