Eastern Michigan vs Ohio

Eastern Michigan

4-44-4 · 3-1 MAC · ATS 3-5

4:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPNU

Peden Stadium · Athens

WIN PROB

83%

OHIO

Ohio

5-25-2 · 3-0 MAC · ATS 3-3-1

Spread: OHIO −10; Open −9.5 · −105
Total: 48.5; Open 49.5 · o −110
Model line: OHIO −15.6+5.6; Model total 56.5
Win probability: 83%
Projected score: 20.4 – 36.1; EMU – OHIO
Projected plays: 129; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: OHIO −10; open −9.5
Model: −15.6+5.6; OHIO
Total: 48.5; model 56.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Ohio passvs Eastern Michigan pass Dvs EMU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	59th+0.01	133rd+0.19	26	OHIO +7.4
Eastern Michigan runvs Ohio run Dvs OHIO run D	108th−0.05	50th−0.03	27	OHIO +3.4
Ohio runvs Eastern Michigan run Dvs EMU run D	33rd+0.06	64th−0.01	39	OHIO +3.0
PaceEMU 30.3 s · OHIO 36.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays129 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	129	U 1.0
Eastern Michigan passvs Ohio pass Dvs OHIO pass D	124th−0.14	130th+0.16	38	EMU +0.7

BIGGEST EDGE · OHIO +7.4

Ohio's passing game vs the Eastern Michigan pass defense

Ohio gains +0.13 EPA a play on the pass (59th); Eastern Michigan allows +0.30 (133rd). About 26 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseOhio

OHIO OFF

When Ohio has the ball

DefenseEastern Michigan

EMU DEF

+0.0759thEPA / play126th+0.19
44.7%38thSuccess rate117th46.2%
1.24112thExplosiveness112th1.35
+0.1333rdRush EPA / play64th+0.06
+0.1359thPass EPA / dropback133rd+0.30
49.6%39thStandard downs SR116th50.4%
32.0%45thPassing downs SR107th32.9%
3.822ndLine yards72nd3.12
10.6%21stHavoc rate50th15.1%
4.1876thPoints / opportunity42nd3.64
73%25thRed zone TD rate90th65%

Ohio's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: success rate (38th vs 117th).

OffenseEastern Michigan

EMU OFF

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

DefenseOhio

OHIO DEF

−0.07123rdEPA / play110th+0.14
38.6%115thSuccess rate84th43.3%
1.22121stExplosiveness115th1.36
+0.02108thRush EPA / play50th+0.04
−0.03124thPass EPA / dropback130th+0.27
43.2%128thStandard downs SR46th46.0%
30.5%81stPassing downs SR122nd33.9%
3.0994thLine yards43rd2.88
14.0%82ndHavoc rate48th15.2%
4.8633rdPoints / opportunity115th4.70
70%39thRed zone TD rate67th61%

Ohio's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (128th vs 46th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Eastern Michigan and Ohio, season to date
Metric	EMUEMU	OHIOOHIO	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	30.3	36.6	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	66.0	63.1	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	59.2%	34.1%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+9.1%	−12.9%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	54.3%	33.0%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	22%	26%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	31:00	32:44	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 26.6	Own 31.4	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →