Eastern Michigan
4-44-4 · 3-1 MAC · ATS 3-5
4:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPNU
Peden Stadium · Athens
WIN PROB
83%
OHIO
Ohio
5-25-2 · 3-0 MAC · ATS 3-3-1
- Spread
- OHIO −10
- Open −9.5 · −105
- Total
- 48.5
- Open 49.5 · o −110
- Model line
- OHIO −15.6+5.6
- Model total 56.5
- Win probability
- 83%
- Projected score
- 20.4 – 36.1
- EMU – OHIO
- Projected plays
- 129
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- OHIO −10
- open −9.5
- Model
- −15.6+5.6
- OHIO
- Total
- 48.5
- model 56.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Ohio passvs Eastern Michigan pass Dvs EMU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 59th+0.01 | 133rd+0.19 | 26 | OHIO +7.4 |
  Eastern Michigan runvs Ohio run Dvs OHIO run D | 108th−0.05 | 50th−0.03 | 27 | OHIO +3.4 |
| Ohio runvs Eastern Michigan run Dvs EMU run D | 33rd+0.06 | 64th−0.01 | 39 | OHIO +3.0 |
PaceEMU 30.3 s · OHIO 36.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays129 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 129 | U 1.0 |
| Eastern Michigan passvs Ohio pass Dvs OHIO pass D | 124th−0.14 | 130th+0.16 | 38 | EMU +0.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · OHIO +7.4
Ohio's passing game vs the Eastern Michigan pass defense
Ohio gains +0.13 EPA a play on the pass (59th); Eastern Michigan allows +0.30 (133rd). About 26 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseOhio
OHIO OFFWhen Ohio has the ball
DefenseEastern Michigan
EMU DEF- +0.0759thEPA / play126th+0.19
- 44.7%38thSuccess rate117th46.2%
- 1.24112thExplosiveness112th1.35
- +0.1333rdRush EPA / play64th+0.06
- +0.1359thPass EPA / dropback133rd+0.30
- 49.6%39thStandard downs SR116th50.4%
- 32.0%45thPassing downs SR107th32.9%
- 3.822ndLine yards72nd3.12
- 10.6%21stHavoc rate50th15.1%
- 4.1876thPoints / opportunity42nd3.64
- +0.1447thEarly-down EPA / play90th+0.08
- 53.8%8th3rd-down conversion92nd40.9%
- 7.9%2ndStuff rate51st18.0%
- 5.8%94thSack rate112th3.9%
- 73%25thRed zone TD rate90th65%
Ohio's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (8th vs 92nd).
OffenseEastern Michigan
EMU OFFWhen Eastern Michigan has the ball
DefenseOhio
OHIO DEF- −0.07123rdEPA / play110th+0.14
- 38.6%115thSuccess rate84th43.3%
- 1.22121stExplosiveness115th1.36
- +0.02108thRush EPA / play50th+0.04
- −0.03124thPass EPA / dropback130th+0.27
- 43.2%128thStandard downs SR46th46.0%
- 30.5%81stPassing downs SR122nd33.9%
- 3.0994thLine yards43rd2.88
- 14.0%82ndHavoc rate48th15.2%
- 4.8633rdPoints / opportunity115th4.70
- −0.09130thEarly-down EPA / play86th+0.07
- 42.9%54th3rd-down conversion117th44.3%
- 15.7%73rdStuff rate66th16.7%
- 3.5%38thSack rate89th4.9%
- 70%39thRed zone TD rate67th61%
Ohio's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (128th vs 46th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | EMUEMU | OHIOOHIO | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.3 | 36.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.0 | 63.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 59.2% | 34.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +9.1% | −12.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 54.3% | 33.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:00 | 32:44 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.6 | Own 31.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%