- Spread
- JXST −2.5
- Open −3.5 · −122
- Total
- 49.5
- Open 48.5 · o −110
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- JXST −2.5
- open −3.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 49.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  New Mexico State passvs Jacksonville State pass Dvs JXST pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 122nd−0.14 | 79th+0.02 | 35 | JXST +6.1 |
  Jacksonville State passvs New Mexico State pass Dvs NMSU pass D | 19th+0.13 | 51st−0.03 | 32 | JXST +4.5 |
| Jacksonville State runvs New Mexico State run Dvs NMSU run D | 109th−0.06 | 66th−0.01 | 36 | NMSU +3.5 |
| New Mexico State runvs Jacksonville State run Dvs JXST run D | 90th−0.03 | 91st+0.04 | 33 | NMSU +0.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · JXST +6.1
The Jacksonville State pass defense vs New Mexico State's passing game
New Mexico State gains −0.02 EPA a play on the pass (122nd); Jacksonville State allows +0.13 (79th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When New Mexico State has the ball
- −0.08124thEPA / play96th+0.12
- 39.0%108thSuccess rate91st44.0%
- 1.3157thExplosiveness49th1.28
- +0.0490thRush EPA / play91st+0.11
- −0.02122ndPass EPA / dropback79th+0.13
- 43.5%124thStandard downs SR101st49.6%
- 30.8%73rdPassing downs SR57th30.3%
- 3.2271stLine yards81st3.19
- 15.7%113thHavoc rate74th14.2%
- 3.71103rdPoints / opportunity43rd3.66
- −0.13133rdEarly-down EPA / play38th−0.03
- 35.3%102nd3rd-down conversion128th48.3%
- 12.4%26thStuff rate102nd14.4%
- 3.3%34thSack rate82nd5.1%
- 59%90thRed zone TD rate50th55%
Jacksonville State's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (133rd vs 38th).
When Jacksonville State has the ball
- +0.0856thEPA / play57th+0.03
- 44.4%40thSuccess rate65th42.0%
- 1.2879thExplosiveness66th1.29
- +0.01109thRush EPA / play66th+0.06
- +0.2519thPass EPA / dropback51st+0.08
- 49.6%37thStandard downs SR62nd46.7%
- 31.3%58thPassing downs SR79th31.1%
- 3.2757thLine yards29th2.78
- 13.7%74thHavoc rate51st15.0%
- 4.9429thPoints / opportunity117th4.71
- +0.0582ndEarly-down EPA / play27th−0.08
- 45.2%34th3rd-down conversion90th40.7%
- 16.8%88thStuff rate18th22.0%
- 2.8%20thSack rate44th6.7%
- 52%116thRed zone TD rate94th67%
Jacksonville State's offense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (29th vs 117th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | JXSTJXST | NMSUNMSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.9 | 29.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 60.4 | 64.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 49.6% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +2.1% | −2.1% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.7% | 41.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 32% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:12 | 30:52 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.8 | Own 28.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%