C-USA · 3-4 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4
New Mexico State Aggies
HC Tony Sanchez (3rd yr) · OC David Yost · DC Joe Morris
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 100%
C-USA · 3-4 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4
New Mexico State
Aggies · HC Tony Sanchez (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
New Mexico State
3-4 · 2-1 C-USA
4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 13% · title 3%
Latest from the beat
NEW MEXICO STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Florida Stateat Florida State | L17–34 | +31+31 | W | −0.26 | 35% | 46% | 12% | 65 | 27.1 | |
| 1 |  MercyhurstMercyhurst | W51–14 | −29−29 | W | +0.58 | 48% | 36% | 99% | 62 | 28.8 | |
| 2 |   at Hawai'iat Hawai'i | L19–29 | +7.5+7.5 | L | −0.09 | 48% | 43% | 33% | 66 | 26.2 | |
| 3 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 4 |   New MexicoNew Mexico | L18–42 | +11.5+11.5 | L | −0.60 | 27% | 48% | 4% | 69 | 23.3 | |
| 5 |   Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky | W34–13 | −1.5−1.5 | W | +0.31 | 37% | 34% | 89% | 59 | 29.4 | |
| 6 |   at Florida Internationalat Florida International | L3–22 | +7+7 | L | −0.28 | 34% | 38% | 6% | 58 | 25.5 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   at Sam Houstonat Sam Houston | W30–24 | −3−3 | W | +0.23 | 39% | 25% | 63% | 71 | 35.0 | |
| 9 |   Jacksonville StateJacksonville StateNEXT | WED 8:00 ESPN2WED 8:00 | +2.5+2.5 | — | — | — | — | 44% | — | — | |
| 10 |   LibertyLiberty | NOV 7NOV 7 | +11.9 proj+11.9 | 24% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Missouri Stateat Missouri State | NOV 14NOV 14 | +1.2 proj+1.2 | 47% | |||||||
| 12 |   DelawareDelaware | NOV 21NOV 21 | −3.7 proj−3.7 | 59% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Middle Tennesseeat Middle Tennessee | NOV 28NOV 28 | +2 proj+2 | 45% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 409 OF 413 PLAYS409 OF 413 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 51% | −0.12 | 38% |
| Under center0% | 0% | 50% | +0.42 | 50% |
| No-huddle65% | 65% | 55% | −0.07 | 39% |
| Huddle35% | 35% | 44% | −0.20 | 38% |
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (−0.12 EPA a play; +0.42 under center). No-huddle on 65 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (4 of 7).
Next game
WED 8:00 ESPN2 · AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMWED 8:00 ESPN2
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-USA crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 33 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 33 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews−0.5 to +0.7 · 8 games | +0.1 | −0.5 to +0.7 | 8 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 4 games | −0.3 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 4 games | −0.6 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 3 games | −0.1 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 2 games | −1.2 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −0.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −1.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −0.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on New Mexico State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on New Mexico State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | New Mexico StateNMSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.08 | 125th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 39.0% | 108th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.30 | 57th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.04 | 90th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | −0.02 | 122nd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 30.8% | 74th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.22 | 71st | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.3% | 34th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 35% | 103rd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.71 | 103rd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 59% | 91st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 27.2 | 51st | 28.0 |